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首页> 外文期刊>Soil Science Society of America Journal >Downscaling Monthly Forecasts to Simulate Impacts of Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Wheat Production
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Downscaling Monthly Forecasts to Simulate Impacts of Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Wheat Production

机译：缩减月度预测以模拟气候变化对土壤侵蚀和小麦生产的影响

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Climate change can affect agricultural production and soil and water conservation. The potential for global climate changes to increase the risk of soil erosion is clear, but the actual damage is not. The objectives of this study were to develop a method for downscaling monthly climate forecasts to daily weather series using a climate generator (CLIGEN), and to determine the potential impacts of projected mean and variance changes in precipitation and temperature on soil erosion and wheat (Triticum Aestivum L.) yield. Monthly forecasts for the periods of 1950–1999 and 2056–2085 for the Oklahoma region, projected by a general circulation model (HadCM3), were used. Projected mean and variance changes in precipitation and temperatures between the two periods were satisfactorily incorporated into CLIGEN input parameters derived for the El Reno station, Oklahoma, and future transitional probabilities of precipitation occurrence were estimated as a linear function of historical monthly precipitation. Five climate change scenarios were constructed, and the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was run for each combination of five climate scenarios and three tillage systems. A 50% increase in CO2 resulted in some 26% increase in wheat yield. At that elevated CO2 level, projected decrease in total precipitation decreased surface runoff, soil loss, and wheat yield. However, predicted changes in precipitation variance increased runoff by 15 to 17%, and increased soil loss by 10 and 19% under conservation and conventional tillage, respectively. Predicted increase in mean temperature reduced wheat yield by 31%, and increased soil loss by 40 and 19% under conservation and conventional tillage, respectively. Under the assumed climate change, predicted average soil loss under conventional tillage was about 2.6 times that under conservation tillage and 29 times that under no-till. With all changes considered, predicted average wheat yield during 2056–2085, compared with the present climate at the present CO2 level, would decrease by 12%; runoff would increase by <7%; and soil loss would increase by <8% in all tillage systems. Overall results indicate that adoption of conservation tillage and no-till will be effective in controlling soil erosion under projected climate change used in this study.
机译：气候变化会影响农业生产和土壤以及 水资源保护。全球气候变化 增加土壤侵蚀风险的潜力是显而易见的，但实际的 损害尚不清楚。这项研究的目的是开发一种使用气候生成器（CLIGEN）将月气候预测降尺度为每日 天气序列的方法，并确定 预计的降水量和温度的均值和方差变化 对土壤侵蚀和小麦（Triticum Aestivum L.）产量的潜在影响。使用一般环流模型（HadCM3）预测的俄克拉荷马州1950–1999 和2056–2085期间的月度预测。将两个时期之间的预计平均值 以及降水和温度方差的变化令人满意地合并到为俄克拉荷马州El Reno台站推导出的CLIGEN 输入参数中估计 和未来降水发生的过渡概率 作为历史月降水量的线性函数。 构建了五个气候变化情景，水<对五个气候情景和三个耕作系统的每个组合 运行了侵蚀预测项目（WEPP）模型。 CO 2 增加 50％，小麦产量增加了26％。在 CO 2 水平升高的情况下，预计总降水量的减少会降低地表径流，土壤流失和小麦产量。但是， 预测的降水变化将使径流 增加15％至17％，在自然保护和常规耕作下，土壤流失增加10％和19％。 ， 分别。在保护性耕作和常规耕作下， 平均温度的升高分别使小麦减产31％，并使土壤 损失分别增加40％和19％。在假定的气候变化下，常规耕作的预测平均土壤流失量约为保护耕作下的 的2.6倍，是免耕耕作下的29倍。 考虑所有变化， CO 2 水平下与当前气候相比， 2056–2085年期间的预测平均小麦单产将降低增加12％；在所有耕作系统中，径流量将增加<7％； ，而土壤流失将增加<8％。 总体结果表明采用保护性耕作 在本研究中使用的 预计的气候变化下，免耕将有效控制土壤侵蚀。

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