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Consequences of neglecting the interannual variability of the solar resource: A case study of photovoltaic power among the Hawaiian Islands

机译：忽略太阳能年际变化的后果：以夏威夷群岛之间的光伏发电为例

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摘要

The interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions are often ignored in favor of single-year data sets for modeling power generation and evaluating the economic value of photovoltaic (PV) power systems. Yet interannual variability significantly impacts the generation from one year to another of renewable power systems such as wind and PV. Consequently, the interannual variability of power generation corresponds to the interannual variability of capital returns on investment. The penetration of PV systems within the Hawaiian Electric Companies' portfolio has rapidly accelerated in recent years and is expected to continue to increase given the state's energy objectives laid out by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative. We use the National Solar Radiation Database (1998-2015) to characterize the interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions across the State of Hawaii. These data sets are passed to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisory Model (SAM) to calculate an 18-year PV power generation data set to characterize the variability of PV power generation. We calculate the interannual coefficient of variability (COV) for annual average global horizontal irradiance (GHI) on the order of 2% and COV for annual capacity factor on the order of 3% across the Hawaiian archipelago. Regarding the interannual variability of seasonal trends, we calculate the COV for monthly average GHI values on the order of 5% and COV for monthly capacity factor on the order of 10%. We model residential-scale and utility-scale PV systems and calculate the economic returns of each system via the payback period and the net present value. We demonstrate that studies based on single-year data sets for economic evaluations reach conclusions that deviate from the true values realized by accounting for interannual variability.
机译：人们常常忽略太阳辐照度和气象条件的年际变化，而倾向于使用单一年的数据集来建模发电和评估光伏（PV）电力系统的经济价值。然而，年际变化极大地影响了风力和光伏等可再生能源系统从一年到另一年的发电量。因此，发电量的年际变化对应于资本投资回报率的年际变化。近年来，光伏系统在夏威夷电力公司投资组合中的渗透迅速加快，并且由于夏威夷清洁能源计划（Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative）制定了该州的能源目标，因此有望继续增加。我们使用国家太阳辐射数据库（1998-2015）来描述整个夏威夷州太阳辐照度和气象条件的年际变化。这些数据集将传递给国家可再生能源实验室的系统咨询模型（SAM），以计算18年的PV发电数据集，以表征PV发电的可变性。我们计算整个夏威夷群岛年平均全球水平辐照度（GHI）的年际变异系数（COV）约为2％，年产能因子的COV约为3％。关于季节趋势的年际变化，我们计算每月平均GHI值的COV约为5％，计算每月产能因子的COV约为10％。我们对住宅规模和公用事业规模的光伏系统建模，并通过投资回收期和净现值计算每个系统的经济回报。我们证明，基于单年度数据集进行经济评估的研究得出的结论与通过解释年际变化实现的真实价值有所出入。

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  • 来源
    《Solar Energy》 |2018年第6期|61-75|共15页
  • 作者

    Bryce Richard; Carreno Ignacio Losada; Kumler Andrew; Hodge Bri-Mathias; Roberts Billy; Martinez-Anido Carlo Brancucci;

  • 作者单位

    Natl Renewable Energy Lab, 15013 Denver West Pkwy,ESIF 200, Golden, CO 80401 USA;

    Natl Renewable Energy Lab, 15013 Denver West Pkwy,ESIF 200, Golden, CO 80401 USA;

    Natl Renewable Energy Lab, 15013 Denver West Pkwy,ESIF 200, Golden, CO 80401 USA;

    Natl Renewable Energy Lab, 15013 Denver West Pkwy,ESIF 200, Golden, CO 80401 USA;

    Natl Renewable Energy Lab, 15013 Denver West Pkwy,ESIF 200, Golden, CO 80401 USA;

    Natl Renewable Energy Lab, 15013 Denver West Pkwy,ESIF 200, Golden, CO 80401 USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Interannual; Variability; Photovoltaics; Irradiance; Capacity factor; Economics;

    机译：年际;变异性;光伏;辐照度;容量因子;经济性;
  • 入库时间 2022-08-18 00:22:55

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