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首页> 外文期刊>Space Weather >The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations
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The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations

机译：主要支柱：评估空间天气观测资产的绩效，以支持临近预报，预报和业务研究

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摘要

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.
机译：太空天气预报关键取决于及时和可靠的观测数据的可用性。因此，了解在恶劣的太空天气期间现有和新计划的观测资产的性能尤为重要。极端的太空天气创造了具有挑战性的条件，在这种条件下，仪器和航天器可能会受到阻碍，或者参数达到超出标称观测范围的值。本文分析了现有和即将进行的观测预报能力，并讨论了这些发现如何影响太空天气研究及其向业务过渡。评估的一个局限性是缺乏向我们提供的有关辐射监测器性能的信息，这使我们无法充分评估（即不评估短期）辐射风暴预报。评估发现，至少有两个间隔较大的日冕仪（包括L4）将为接地CME提供可靠性。此外，评估的所有磁场测量值完全符合要求。但是，在现有的或什至有新的短期资产的情况下，在最坏的情况下，可能会几乎完全缺少关键的近实时太阳风等离子体数据，这些数据严重干扰了地球磁层并影响了地球磁层。试图以近实时或存档数据模拟这些干扰影响的模型需要太阳风等离子体观测作为输入。此外，研究发现，不久的将来的观测资产将无法促进对地球上极端地磁干扰的理解，这可能使所得的空间天气模型不适合过渡到业务。

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  • 来源
    《Space Weather》 |2014年第4期|257-276|共20页
  • 作者

    A. Posner; M. Hesse; O. C. St. Cyr;

  • 作者单位

    NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA, Also at NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC, USA;

    NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA;

    NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Forecasting; Storms; Space vehicles; Earth; Sun; Magnetosphere;

    机译：预报;风暴;航天器;地球;太阳;磁层;

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