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GCR environmental models II: Uncertainty propagation methods for GCR environments

机译：GCR环境模型II：GCR环境的不确定性传播方法

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摘要

In order to assess the astronaut exposure received within vehicles or habitats, accurate models of the ambient galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment are required. Many models have been developed and compared to measurements, with uncertainty estimates often stated to be within 15%. However, intercode comparisons can lead to differences in effective dose exceeding 50%. This is the second of three papers focused on resolving this discrepancy. The first paper showed that GCR heavy ions with boundary energies below 500 MeV induce less than 5% of the total effective dose behind shielding. Yet, due to limitations on available data, model development and validation are heavily influenced by comparisons to measurements taken below 500 MeV. In the current work, the focus is on developing an efficient method for propagating uncertainties in the ambient GCR environment to effective dose values behind shielding. A simple approach utilizing sensitivity results from the first paper is described and shown to be equivalent to a computationally expensive Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation. The simple approach allows a full uncertainty propagation to be performed once GCR uncertainty distributions are established. This rapid analysis capability may be integrated into broader probabilistic radiation shielding analysis and also allows error bars (representing boundary condition uncertainty) to be placed around point estimates of effective dose.
机译：为了评估在车辆或栖息地中接收到的宇航员的暴露情况，需要准确的环境银河宇宙射线（GCR）环境模型。已经开发了许多模型并将其与测量结果进行比较，不确定度估计通常在15％以内。但是，代码间比较可能导致有效剂量差异超过50％。这是针对解决这一差异的三篇论文中的第二篇。第一篇论文表明，边界能低于500 MeV / n的GCR重离子所产生的屏蔽作用不到总有效剂量的5％。然而，由于可用数据的限制，与低于500 MeV / n的测量值进行比较会严重影响模型的开发和验证。在当前的工作中，重点是开发一种有效的方法，将周围GCR环境中的不确定性传播到屏蔽后的有效剂量值。描述了一种利用第一篇论文的灵敏度结果的简单方法，该方法等效于计算量大的蒙特卡洛不确定性传播。一旦建立了GCR不确定性分布，简单的方法就可以执行完整的不确定性传播。这种快速分析功能可以集成到更广泛的概率辐射屏蔽分析中，并且还可以将误差线（代表边界条件不确定性）放置在有效剂量的点估计值周围。

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