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A preliminary risk assessment of the Australian region power network to space weather

机译：澳大利亚地区电网对空间天气的初步风险评估

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摘要

It is well documented that power networks at high latitudes are vulnerable to the effects of space weather. In recent years the eastern Australia state power networks have been connected across state boundaries in order to improve robustness under increasing load demands and deliver power at competitive prices. However, this interconnectivity is likely to increase susceptibility of the network to space weather. Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) flow in power transmission lines as the result of “geoelectric” fields and their associated geomagnetic field variations according to Faraday's Law. In this paper previously documented occurrences of GIC activity from regions around the world are investigated and categorized by their effects on nearby power networks. A frequency domain filter that produces an index representing GIC activity is applied to geomagnetic field data recorded at locations near the documented GIC activity to determine risk level “GIC index” thresholds. Geomagnetic field data from the Australian region are processed using the “GIC filter” to provide a preliminary risk assessment of space weather related GIC activity to the Australian power network. The analysis suggests lower limit threshold GICy indices of 50, 100, 250, and 600 corresponding to the risk levels of “low,” “moderate,” “high,” and “extreme,” respectively. Analysis of GICy indices derived from Australian magnetometer data shows that only southern Australian regions reached the “moderate” risk levels defined in this study with mainland southern Australia stations reaching this risk level twice over the previous two solar cycles. Southern Australian regions such as Tasmania reached moderate levels approximately 20 times during the previous solar cycle. Furthermore, elevated risk levels are typically only observed in Australia during solar maximum and its decline phase.
机译：有据可查的是，高纬度地区的电网容易受到太空天气的影响。近年来，澳大利亚东部各州的电网已跨州边界连接，以提高在不断增长的负荷需求下的坚固性并以具有竞争力的价格提供电力。但是，这种互连性可能会增加网络对太空天气的敏感性。根据法拉第定律，由于“地电场”及其相关的地磁场变化，地磁感应电流（GIC）在输电线路中流动。在本文中，以前对来自世界各地的GIC活动的发生进行了调查，并根据它们对附近电网的影响进行了分类。将产生表示GIC活动的索引的频域滤波器应用于记录在已记录的GIC活动附近的位置处的地磁场数据，以确定风险级别“ GIC索引”阈值。使用“ GIC过滤器”处理来自澳大利亚地区的地磁场数据，以便为澳大利亚电网提供与空间天气相关的GIC活动的初步风险评估。分析表明，下限阈值GICy指数分别为50、100、250和600，分别对应于“低”，“中”，“高”和“极度”风险等级。根据澳大利亚磁力计数据得出的GICy指数分析表明，只有澳大利亚南部地区达到了本研究中定义的“中等”风险水平，而澳大利亚南部大陆站点在过去两个太阳周期内两次达到了该风险水平。在上一个太阳周期，塔斯马尼亚岛等南澳大利亚地区达到了大约20倍的中等水平。此外，通常仅在澳大利亚太阳最高峰及其下降阶段观察到较高的风险水平。

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  • 来源
    《Space Weather》 |2011年第10期|1-18|共18页
  • 作者

    R. A. Marshall; E. A. Smith; M. J. Francis; C. L. Waters; M. D. Sciffer;

  • 作者单位

    IPS Radio and Space Services, Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.;

    Now at Defence Science and Technology Organisation, Edinburgh, South Australia, Australia., IPS Radio and Space Services, Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.;

    IPS Radio and Space Services, Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.;

    Centre for Space Physics, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, New South Wales, Australia.;

    Centre for Space Physics, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, New South Wales, Australia.;

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  • 关键词

    Meteorology; Indexes; Australia; Observatories; Risk management; Frequency-domain analysis; Geophysical measurements;

    机译：气象;指数;澳大利亚;天文台;风险管理;频域分析;地球物理测量;

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