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Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach

机译：德国大洪水对经济的广泛影响：一种非线性规划方法

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Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach. Spatial Economic Analysis. This paper further develops a new methodology to estimate the wider, indirect impacts of major disasters, and applies it to the 2013 heavy flooding of southern and eastern Germany. We model the attempts of economic actors to continue their usual activities, as closely as possible, by minimizing the information gain between the pre- and post-disaster pattern of economic transactions of the economy at hand. Findings show that government support of local final demand substantially reduces the indirect losses of the floods, while having a disaster at the top of the business cycle increases them. Moreover, we find that assuming fixed trade origin shares and fixed industry market shares, as in all multiregional input-output models, leads to implausibly large estimates of the indirect losses.
机译：德国大洪水对经济的广泛影响：一种非线性规划方法。空间经济分析。本文进一步开发了一种新的方法来估算重大灾难的更广泛，间接的影响，并将其应用于2013年德国南部和东部的洪灾。我们通过最大程度地减少手头经济的经济交易的灾前和灾后模式之间的信息获取，来模拟经济参与者尽可能接近地继续其日常活动的尝试。调查结果表明，政府对当地最终需求的支持大大减少了洪水的间接损失，而在商业周期顶部的灾难却加剧了洪水的损失。此外，我们发现，假设像所有多区域投入产出模型一样，固定的贸易原产地份额和固定的工业市场份额会导致对间接损失的巨大估计。

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