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首页> 外文期刊>SPE journal >Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Applying the Least-Squares Monte Carlo Method in Surfactant-Flooding Implementation
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Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Applying the Least-Squares Monte Carlo Method in Surfactant-Flooding Implementation

机译：不确定性下的决策：最小二乘蒙特卡罗方法在表面活性剂驱替实施中的应用

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摘要

This study introduces a decision-making evaluation method for flexibility in surfactant flooding. The method aims to capture the effects of uncertainty in the time series for both technical and economic parameters and produce a near-optimal policy with respect to these uncertainties as they vary with time. The evaluation method used was the least-squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method, which is best-suited for evaluating flexibility in project implementation. The decision analyzed was that of finding the best time to start surfactant flooding during the lifetime of a field under uncertainty. The study was conducted on two reservoir models: a 3D homogeneous model and a 2D heterogeneous model. The technical uncertainties considered were the residual oil saturation (ROS) to the surfactant flood, surfactant adsorption, and reservoir heterogeneity, and the main economic uncertain parameters considered were oil price, surfactant cost, and water-injection and -production costs. The results show that the LSM method provides a decision-making tool that was able to capture the value of flexibility in surfactant-flooding implementation and provides some insight into the effect of uncertainty on decision making, which can help mitigate adverse circumstances should they arise or capture the upside potential if circumstances prove beneficial. The results found that the optimal policy obtained was reliable and that heterogeneity and different well-placement patterns affect the value of flexibility and optimal policy for different reservoir models. Furthermore, possible extensions to enhance the LSM method were discussed.
机译：这项研究介绍了一种表面活性剂驱油灵活性的决策评估方法。该方法旨在捕获时间序列中的不确定性对技术和经济参数的影响，并针对这些不确定性随时间变化而产生接近最优的策略。所使用的评估方法是最小二乘蒙特卡洛（LSM）方法，该方法最适合评估项目实施中的灵活性。分析的决定是在不确定的条件下，找到在油田生命期内开始表面活性剂驱油的最佳时间。该研究在两个油藏模型上进行：3D均质模型和2D异质模型。所考虑的技术不确定性是表面活性剂驱替的残余油饱和度（ROS），表面活性剂吸附和储层非均质性，所考虑的主要经济不确定性参数是油价，表面活性剂成本以及注水和生产成本。结果表明，LSM方法提供了一种决策工具，该工具能够捕获表面活性剂驱替实施中的灵活性，并提供一些不确定性对决策的影响的洞察力，这有助于缓解不利情况的发生或发生。如果情况证明是有利的，则抓住上行潜力。结果发现，所获得的最优策略是可靠的，并且非均质性和不同的井筒布置方式影响了不同油藏模型的灵活性和最优策略的价值。此外，讨论了增强LSM方法的可能扩展。

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  • 来源
    《SPE journal》 |2013年第4期|721-735|共15页
  • 作者

    A. Alkhatib; M. Babaei; P.R. King;

  • 作者单位

    Imperial College London;

    Imperial College London;

    Imperial College London;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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