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首页> 外文期刊>Statistical Methods and Applications >Interaction among three substitute products: an extended innovation diffusion model
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Interaction among three substitute products: an extended innovation diffusion model

机译：三种替代产品之间的互动：扩展创新扩散模型

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摘要

In this paper, we propose a model to describe the mutual interactions among the lifecycles of three substitute products acting simultaneously in a common market, thus competing for the same customers or cooperating to supply demand. To date, the literature only describes models for two competitors; therefore, the present work represents the first attempt at creating and implementing a model for three actors. The new model is applied to real data in the energy context, and its performance is compared to the performance of current models for two competitors. Regarding the datasets examined, the new model shows a relevant improvement in terms of forecasting performance, that is forecasting accuracy and prediction confidence band width.
机译：在本文中，我们提出了一种模型来描述在共同市场中同时行动的三种替代产品的生命周期中的相互相互作用，从而竞争同一客户或合作提供需求。迄今为止，文献仅描述了两个竞争对手的模型;因此，本工作代表了第一次尝试为三个演员创建和实施模型。新模型应用于能量上下文中的实际数据，其性能与两个竞争对手的当前模型的性能进行了比较。关于所检查的数据集，新模型在预测性能方面表现出相关的提高，这是预测精度和预测置信带宽。

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