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Application of a predictive distribution formula to Bayesian computation for incomplete data models

机译:预测分布公式在不完整数据模型的贝叶斯计算中的应用

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We consider exact and approximate Bayesian computation in the presence of latent variables or missing data. Specifically we explore the application of a posterior predictive distribution formula derived in Sweeting and Kharroubi (2003), which is a particular form of Laplace approximation, both as an importance function and a proposal distribution. We show that this formula provides a stable importance function for use within poor man's data augmentation schemes and that it can also be used as a proposal distribution within a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for models that are not analytically tractable. We illustrate both uses in the case of a censored regression model and a normal hierarchical model, with both normal and Student t distributed random effects. Although the predictive distribution formula is motivated by regular asymptotic theory, it is not necessary that the likelihood has a closed form or that it possesses a local maximum.
机译:在存在潜在变量或缺少数据的情况下,我们考虑精确和近似的贝叶斯计算。具体来说,我们探索在Sweeting和Kharroubi(2003)中推导的后验预测分布公式的应用,该公式是重要函数和提议分布,是Laplace近似的一种特殊形式。我们表明,该公式为穷人的数据增强方案提供了稳定的重要性函数,并且对于无法解析的模型,它也可以用作Metropolis-Hastings算法中的提案分配。我们说明了在删失回归模型和正态分层模型的情况下,正态分布和Student t分布随机效应的两种用法。尽管预测分布公式是由正则渐近理论驱动的,但似然度不一定必须具有封闭形式或具有局部最大值。

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