• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment >Spatio-temporal trends of mean air temperature during 1961-2009 and impacts on crop (maize) yields in the most important agricultural region of Romania
【24h】

Spatio-temporal trends of mean air temperature during 1961-2009 and impacts on crop (maize) yields in the most important agricultural region of Romania

机译：罗马尼亚最重要的农业地区1961-2009年平均气温的时空变化趋势及其对作物（玉米）产量的影响

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Climate change analysis is essential, considering the numerous economic and ecological implications of this critical global environmental issue. This paper analyzes the spatial and temporal trends of mean air temperature in Romania's most important agricultural area, the south and south-eastern region, between 1961 and 2009. In this respect, multiannual (the entire period) and multidecadal (1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2009) trends were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope method at 23 weather stations, annually, seasonally and for the growing season of the region's main agricultural crops (maize and wheat). Multiannually, the results showed statistically significant temperature increases, on all temporal scales (maximum rate of 0.06 A degrees C/year recorded in summer, equivalent to a net temperature rise of 2.82 A degrees C), except for the autumn season (cooling without statistical significance). Multidecadally, the 1961-1990 period is marked by a general cooling, especially in autumn (maximum values of -0.07 A degrees C/year or over 2 A degrees C net cooling). In the 1971-2000 and 1981-2009 periods, a general warming was observed (maximum in summer for both multidecades, when positive rates peaked at 0.09 A degrees C/year, or 2.5-3 A degrees C net warming), but the warming of the last three decades is the most prominent in terms of spatial average magnitude and trend significance. Upon analysis of the impact of climate warming on agricultural yields (maize) through linear regression, in the 1991-2000 decade, considered as case study, it was found that in 32 % of the total analyzed area there are evident relationships between the two variables (p value < 0.05). In this case, a dependency of 33-50 % (40 %, on average) of maize to climate was found, and a sensitivity (loss) ranging between 0.9 and 1.5 t/ha/year (1.2 t/ha/year, on average) for a 1 A degrees C temperature rise. At the same time, significant losses (of up to 1.7 t/ha/year) of maize for a 1 A degrees C temperature rise were identified in 51 % of the area, but with little p value significance (between 0.05 and 0.1). It is however necessary to analyse the agro-climatic results cautiously, considering that only one decade of climate-agriculture relationship was studied. The results can be useful first and foremost for mitigating the climate change impact on agricultural systems, by prioritizing future adaptation strategies enforced by policy makers.
机译：考虑到这个关键的全球环境问题的众多经济和生态影响，气候变化分析至关重要。本文分析了罗马尼亚最重要的农业地区，南部和东南部地区在1961年至2009年之间的平均气温时空趋势。在这方面，多年期（整个时期）和年代际（1961-1990年，1971年） -2000年，1981-2009年）使用Mann-Kendall检验和Sen斜率方法，对该地区主要农作物（玉米和小麦）的每年，季节性和生长期的23个气象站进行了趋势分析。多个年份的结果显示，在所有时间尺度上，温度都有统计学上的显着升高（夏季记录的最高速率为每年0.06 A摄氏度，相当于净温度升高2.82 A摄氏度），秋季除外（冷却没有统计数据）意义）。 1961-1990年的十年间以普遍降温为特征，尤其是在秋季（最高值为-0.07 A /年或超过2 A的净降温）。在1971-2000年和1981-2009年期间，观察到普遍变暖（两个十年来夏季最高），当阳性率达到0.09 A /年或2.5-3 A净增温时达到峰值。就空间平均幅度和趋势意义而言，最近三十年中的最突出。通过线性回归分析气候变暖对农业产量（玉米）的影响，在1991-2000十年中，作为案例研究，发现在总分析面积的32％中，两个变量之间存在明显的关系（p值<0.05）。在这种情况下，发现玉米对气候的依赖度为33-50％（平均40％），敏感性（损失）在0.9-1.5吨/公顷/年（1.2吨/公顷/年）之间。平均温度升高1 A摄氏度。同时，在该地区51％的面积中，温度每升高1 A，玉米的大量损失（高达1.7吨/公顷/年）被发现，但p值的意义不大（介于0.05和0.1之间）。但是，考虑到仅研究了十年的气候-农业关系，有必要谨慎地分析农业气候结果。通过优先考虑政策制定者实施的未来适应策略，这些结果首先对于减轻气候变化对农业系统的影响很有用。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号