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首页> 外文期刊>Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment >Identification of optimal strategies for agricultural nonpoint source management in Ulansuhai Nur watershed of Inner Mongolia, China
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Identification of optimal strategies for agricultural nonpoint source management in Ulansuhai Nur watershed of Inner Mongolia, China

机译：内蒙古乌兰苏海努尔流域农业面源农业优化策略的确定

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摘要

In this study, an environmental-friendly modeling system was developed and applied to an agriculture nonpoint source (AGNPS) management in Ulansuhai Nur watershed. In this system, water environmental capacity, credibility-based chance-constrained programming (CCCP), and AGNPS optimization models were integrated into a general modeling framework. It could be used to calculate water environmental capacity of total nitrogen and total phosphorus in Ulansuhai Nur watershed, which could consequentially provide input data for the developed AGNPS optimization model. Also, the inherent uncertainties in estimating water environmental capacities that can be expressed as possibilistic distributions were reflected and addressed based on computational results of three widely used methods. Such uncertainties were consequentially transferred to the proposed CCCP model based on the adoption of multiple credibility satisfactory levels, significantly facilitating objectivity reflection of decision alternatives. The developed modeling system was then applied to Ulansuhai Nur watershed of Inner Mongolia, a semi-arid river basin in northwestern China. Optimal strategies for AGNPS management in Ulansuhai Nur watershed were generated with consideration of the maximum total agricultural income under multiple policy scenarios. The results showed that the total agricultural income would increase with point source pollution being cut down, and would decrease with rising credibility levels, representing decreasing system violation risks. It was indicated that the higher of total nitrogen/phosphorus discharge being less than water environmental capacity of Ulansuhai Nur, the lower the total agriculture incomes. The proposed methods could help decision makers establish various production patterns with cost-effective agriculture nonpoint source management schemes in the basin of Ulansuhai Nur, and gain in-depth insights into the tradeoffs between total agricultural incomes and system reliabilities.
机译：在这项研究中，开发了一种环境友好的建模系统，并将其应用于乌兰苏海努尔流域的农业面源（AGNPS）管理。在该系统中，将水环境容量，基于信誉的机会约束规划（CCCP）和AGNPS优化模型集成到了通用建模框架中。它可用于计算乌兰苏海努尔流域的总氮和总磷的水环境容量，从而可为已开发的AGNPS优化模型提供输入数据。此外，基于三种广泛使用的方法的计算结果，反映并解决了估计水环境容量的内在不确定性（可以表示为可能的分布）。因此，在采用多个可信度令人满意的水平的基础上，将这些不确定性转移到了建议的CCCP模型中，从而大大促进了决策备选方案的客观反映。然后将开发的建模系统应用于中国西北部半干旱河流域内蒙古的乌兰苏海努尔流域。乌兰苏海努尔流域的AGNPS管理最佳策略是在多种政策情景下考虑最大农业总收入的基础上得出的。结果表明，随着点源污染的减少，农业总收入将增加，而随着信誉水平的提高，农业总收入将减少，这意味着系统违规风险降低。结果表明，总氮/磷排放量高于乌兰苏海努尔水环境容量时，农业总收入较低。所提出的方法可以帮助决策者在乌兰苏海努尔盆地采用具有成本效益的农业面源管理计划建立各种生产模式，并深入了解总农业收入与系统可靠性之间的折衷关系。

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