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Strategic NPV: Real Options and Strategic Games under Different Information Structures

机译：战略净现值：不同信息结构下的实物期权和战略博弈

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摘要

Research summary: Among the most difficult firm strategic choices is the trade-off between making a long-term commitment or holding off on investment in the face of uncertainty. To operationalize strategic management theory under demand, technological and competitive uncertainty, we develop a Strategic Net Present Value (NPV) framework that integrates real options and game theory to quantify value components and interactions at the interface between NPV, real options, and strategic games. Our approach results in new propositions clarifying the way learning-experience conditions, technological uncertainty, and proprietary information interact to tilt the balance in the interplay between wait-and-see flexibility and strategic commitment. As such, Strategic NPV adds to our understanding of the conditions where NPV, real options, or strategic thinking are more relevant.Managerial summary: This study develops and elucidates implementation of a new valuation construct, Strategic Net Present Value (NPV), that integrates real options and game theory to more accurately portray strategic decisions underlying management theory. Among the most difficult firm strategic choices in capital intensive industries, such as energy, mining, chip manufacturing, and infrastructure development, is the trade-off between making a long-term commitment or holding off on investment in the face of demand, technological, and competitive uncertainties. The study provides new insights on the way various conditions, such as learning-experience effects, technological uncertainty, and proprietary information, interact to tilt the balance in the interplay between commitment and wait-and-see flexibility. As such, Strategic NPV adds to our understanding of when NPV, real options, or strategic thinking matter more critically for decision making. Copyright (c) 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
机译：研究摘要：在最困难的公司战略选择中，是做出长期承诺或面对不确定性而推迟投资之间的权衡。为了在需求，技术和竞争不确定性的情况下实施战略管理理论，我们开发了战略净现值（NPV）框架，该框架集成了实物期权和博弈论，以量化NPV，实物期权和战略博弈之间的价值成分和相互作用。我们的方法提出了新的命题，阐明了学习体验条件，技术不确定性和专有信息相互作用的方式，以倾斜观望灵活性与战略承诺之间相互作用的平衡。因此，战略NPV增加了我们对NPV，实物期权或战略思维更相关的条件的理解。管理摘要：本研究开发并阐明了新的估值结构战略净现值（NPV）的实施，该结构整合了实物期权和博弈论，以更准确地刻画管理理论基础的战略决策。在能源，采矿，芯片制造和基础设施开发等资本密集型行业中，最困难的公司战略选择之一是在做出长期承诺或面对需求，技术，和竞争的不确定性。这项研究提供了关于各种条件（例如学习体验效果，技术不确定性和专有信息）相互作用以倾斜承诺与观望灵活性之间相互作用的平衡的方式的新见解。因此，战略NPV会增加我们对NPV，实物期权或战略思想何时对决策至关重要的理解。版权所有（c）2017 John Wiley＆Sons，Ltd.

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  • 来源
    《Strategic Management Journal》 |2017年第13期|2555-2578|共24页
  • 作者

    Smit Han T. J.; Trigeorgis Lenos;

  • 作者单位

    Erasmus Univ, Erasmus Sch Econ, Rotterdam, Netherlands|Erasmus Univ, Erasmus Inst Management ERIM, Rotterdam, Netherlands;

    Univ Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus|Kings Coll London, London, England|MIT, Sloan Sch Management, E62-688,100 Main St, Cambridge, MA 02142 USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    strategic decisions; real options; game theory; valuation; RD;

    机译：战略决策;实物期权;博弈论;评估;研发;

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