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SCENARIO LOSS EARTHQUAKE DAMAGEABILITY ANALYSIS

机译：情景损失地震破坏性分析

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摘要

The financial vulnerability of properties is often determined for specific, scenario earthquakes. The influence of three separate issues on damage to two portfolios are explored: specification of the earthquake considered; specification of the resulting site ground motions; and characterization of the resulting building damageability. A site in San Francisco is considered for a range of building vulnerabilities from very low to very high. Scenario losses are developed for the maximum credible earthquakes on the San Andreas and Hayward faults. Several different assumptions are used to characterizing these earthquakes, including sing1e magnitude values and logic tree characterizations, and the ground motion at the site, including the average value and a probability distribution. Building damageability estimates are made for each different characterization of the scenario earthquake using median, average and l0/100 exceedance measures of damageability. The results shown how significant the selection of the particular scenario magnitude, site ground motion characterization, and damageability values are to the final results; high values can be as much as four times the low values, all assuming exactly the same earthquake environment and building damageability. It is recommended that the scenario be defined in terms of a logic tree formulation of possible earthquakes to assure that all possible magnitudes are considered, that a probability distribution be used to characterize the building site's ground motion, and that the damageability estimation procedure fully considers uncertainties in both the site ground motion and building damageability in a consistent statistical manner.
机译：通常针对特定的场景地震来确定财产的财务脆弱性。探讨了三个独立问题对两个投资组合的损害的影响：考虑的地震规范；规范所产生的场地地面运动；以及对建筑物损坏的特征。考虑到旧金山的一个站点存在从极低到极高的一系列建筑漏洞。为在圣安德烈亚斯和海沃德断层发生最大程度的可信地震制定了方案损失。几种不同的假设用于表征这些地震，包括单个震级值和逻辑树表征，以及现场的地面运动，包括平均值和概率分布。对于建筑物地震的每个不同特征，均使用中值，平均值和10/100以上的破坏力度量进行建筑破坏力估算。结果表明，对特定情景大小，场地地面运动特征和可破坏性值的选择对最终结果有多重要；高值可能是低值的四倍，所有这些值都假定完全相同的地震环境和建筑物损坏性。建议根据可能的地震的逻辑树公式来定义场景，以确保考虑所有可能的震级，使用概率分布来表征建筑工地的地面运动，并且破坏性评估程序应充分考虑不确定性以一致的统计方式在现场地面运动和建筑物破坏性方面。

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