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首页> 外文期刊>Structural engineering earthquake engineering >ESTIMATING MARKOVIAN TRANSITION PROBABILITIES FOR BRIDGE DETERIORATION FORECASTING
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ESTIMATING MARKOVIAN TRANSITION PROBABILITIES FOR BRIDGE DETERIORATION FORECASTING

机译：估计桥梁退化预测的马尔可夫过渡概率

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摘要

In this paper, a methodology to estimate the Markovian transition probability model is presented to forecast the deterioration process of bridge components. The deterioration states of the bridge components are categorized into several ranks, and their deterioration processes are characterized by hazard models. The Markovian transition probabilities between the deterioration states which are defined for the fixed intervals between the inspection points in time, are described by the exponential hazard models. The applicability of the estimation methodology presented in this paper is investigated by the empirical data set of steel bridges in New York city.
机译：本文提出了一种估计马尔可夫过渡概率模型的方法来预测桥梁构件的劣化过程。桥梁构件的劣化状态可分为几类，其劣化过程以危险模型为特征。为检查时间点之间的固定间隔定义的变质状态之间的马尔科夫过渡概率由指数危险模型描述。通过纽约市钢桥的经验数据集研究了本文提出的估算方法的适用性。

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