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Does the sentiment of investors explain differences between predicted and realized stock prices?

机译：投资者的情绪是否可以解释预期股价与实际股价之间的差异？

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to use the Barberis et al. (1998)'s valuation model to calculate the fundamental value of a stock and examine whether the differences between predicted and realized stock prices are explained both by psychological factors (that affect investor reaction to information) and by key macroeconomic variables. Design/methodology/approach - This paper adopts a time-series analysis, as well as a panel data approach, to examine whether the price deviations from fundamental values are because of macroeconomic and psychological factors, using data from the London Stock Exchange. Findings - The results indicate that these differences are explained by important macroeconomic variables, as well as by the sentiment of investors (that is used as a proxy of the psychological factors). Originality/value - Based on the above results, this paper suggests that the price deviations from fundamental values are not treated as model estimation errors as proposed by Penman and Sougiannis (1998) but rather as deviations that are because of psychological factors, as well as to macroeconomic conditions.
机译：目的-本文的目的是使用Barberis等。 （1998年）的估值模型可以计算股票的基本价值，并检查心理价格因素（影响投资者对信息的反应）和关键的宏观经济变量是否可以解释预测股价和实际股价之间的差异。设计/方法/方法-本文采用时间序列分析以及面板数据方法，使用伦敦证券交易所的数据来检验价格与基本价值的偏离是否是由于宏观经济和心理因素造成的。研究结果-结果表明，这些差异可以由重要的宏观经济变量以及投资者的情绪（被用作心理因素的代表）来解释。独创性/价值-基于上述结果，本文认为与基本价值的价格偏差不被视为Penman和Sougiannis（1998）提出的模型估计误差，而是由于心理因素以及宏观经济条件。

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