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Objectivity in confirmation: Post hoc monsters and novel predictions

机译:确认中的客观性:事后怪物和新颖的预测

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The aim of this paper is to put in place some cornerstones in the foundations for an objective theory of confirmation by considering lessons from the failures of predictivism. Discussion begins with a widely accepted challenge, to find out what is needed in addition to the right kind of inferential-semantical relations between hypothesis and evidence to have a complete account of confirmation, one that gives a definitive answer to the question whether hypotheses branded as "post hoc monsters" can be confirmed. The predictivist view is then presented as a way to meet this challenge. Particular attention is paid to Worrall's version of predictivism, as it appears to be the most sophisticated of the lot. It is argued that, despite its faults, his view turns our heads in the right direction by attempting to remove contingent considerations from confirmational matters. The demand to remove such considerations becomes the first of four cornerstones. Each cornerstone is put in place with the aim to steer clear of the sort of failures that plague various kinds of predictivism. In the process, it becomes obvious that the original challenge is wrongheaded and in need of revision. The paper ends with just such a revision.
机译:本文的目的是通过考虑来自预测主义失败的经验教训,为客观确认理论的基础奠定一些基础。讨论始于一项广泛接受的挑战,即找出假设与证据之间正确的推理语义关系以完全确认这一点,还需要什么,从而对假设是否被冠以品牌的问题给出了明确的答案。可以确认“特设怪物”。然后提出了预测主义者的观点,以此来应对这一挑战。特别要注意的是Worrall的预测主义版本,因为它似乎是最复杂的版本。有人认为,尽管有过错,但他的观点通过试图从确认事项中消除或有考虑,使我们朝正确的方向前进。消除这些考虑的需求成为四个基石中的第一个。每个基石都放置在适当的位置,目的是避免困扰各种预测主义的那种失败。在此过程中,很明显原来的挑战是错误的,需要修改。本文以这样的修订结尾。

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