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New tools for theory choice and theory diagnosis

机译：理论选择和理论诊断的新工具

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Theory choice can be approached in at least four ways. One of these calls for the application of decision theory, and this article endorses this approach. But applying standard forms of decision theory imposes an overly demanding standard of numeric information, supposedly satisfied by point-valued utility and probability functions. To ameliorate this difficulty, a version of decision theory that requires merely comparative utilities and plausibilities is proposed. After a brief summary of this alternative, the article illustrates how comparative decision theory affords a rational reconstruction of decisions made by exemplary scientists in two cases of theory choice: Buffon's law and the luminiferous ether. It also offers a rational reconstruction of two cases of theory diagnosis: Mendeleev's anomalies and the Pioneer anomaly.
机译：理论选择至少可以通过四种方式进行。其中之一要求决策理论的应用，本文认可了这种方法。但是，应用决策理论的标准形式强加了一个过分苛刻的数字信息标准，据信可以由点值效用和概率函数来满足。为了缓解这一困难，提出了一种决策理论，仅要求比较实用性和可行性。在对这种选择进行了简要总结之后，本文说明了比较决策理论如何在两种理论选择情况下（布冯定律和发光醚）合理地重构了杰出科学家做出的决策。它还提供了两种理论诊断案例的合理重建：门捷列夫异常和先锋异常。

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