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Hume's Theorem

机译:休ume定理

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摘要

A common criticism of Hume's famous anti-induction argument is that it is vitiated because it fails to foreclose the possibility of an authentically probabilistic justification of induction. I argue that this claim is false, and that on the contrary, the probability calculus itself, in the form of an elementary consequence that I call Hume's Theorem, fully endorses Hume's argument. Various objections, including the often-made claim that Hume is defeated by de Finetti's exchangeability results, are considered and rejected.
机译:对休ume著名的反归因论证的一种普遍批评是,它之所以被废除,是因为它未能排除归因于概率的正当理由的可能性。我认为这种说法是错误的,相反,概率演算本身(以我称之为休姆定理的基本结果形式)完全认可了休'的论点。人们考虑并拒绝了各种反对意见,包括经常提出的休姆被德菲内蒂的互换性结果击败的说法。

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