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Global Warming and the Arab Spring

机译：全球变暖与阿拉伯之春

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Was climate change one of the causes of the wave of popular protests and uprisings that has swept the Arab countries of North Africa and the Middle East since January? At first blush, the question looks absurd. Surely myriad long- and short-term social, economic, political and religious drivers of anger and dissent are the obvious causes. But in fact the recent events offer a textbook example of what analysts mean when they talk of complex causality and the role of climate change as a 'threat multiplier'.1 The wave of protests, feeding on one another, might have broken at any time over the last few decades.2 Why did it happen now? Many different sets of events and circumstances might have been sufficient to set it off. Any particular set would have been unnecessary, since another could have sufficed. But in the chain of events that did lead to today's revolutions, climate change played a necessary role, even if it was obviously an insufficient trigger on its own. A proximate factor behind the unrest was a spike in global food crises, which in turn was due in part to the extreme weather throughout the globe over the past year. This was not enough to trigger regime change - we have seen food price spikes and food riots before - but it was a necessary part of this particular mix.
机译：自一月份以来，气候变化是否是席卷北非和中东阿拉伯国家的民众抗议和起义浪潮的原因之一？乍一看，这个问题看起来很荒谬。显然，愤怒和异议的各种长期，短期的社会，经济，政治和宗教动因是明显的原因。但是实际上，最近发生的事件提供了一个教科书示例，说明了分析家谈论复杂的因果关系以及气候变化作为“威胁乘数”的作用时的含义。1相互抵制的抗议浪潮随时可能中断在过去的几十年中。2为什么现在发生了？许多不同的事件和情况可能足以使它引爆。任何特定的设置都是不必要的，因为另一个可以满足要求。但是，在确实导致当今革命的一系列事件中，气候变化发挥了必要的作用，即使它本身显然不足以引发气候变化。动乱背后的一个最直接的因素是全球粮食危机的激增，这又部分归因于过去一​​年来全球的极端天气。这还不足以引发政权更迭-我们之前曾看到过粮价飙升和骚乱-但这是这种特殊组合的必要组成部分。

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  • 来源
    《Survival》 |2011年第2期|p.11-17|共7页
  • 作者

    Sarah Johnstone; Jeffrey Mazo;

  • 作者单位

    Online at the IISS;

    Online at the IISS;

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