If we conceive of 'wars' the way our parents and grandparents did - as major conflicts among powerful states that disrupt the lives of billions and transform the international order - then war in Asia today seems close to unthinkable. For over 30 years, East Asia has enjoyed peace such as it has probably never known before. In Northeast Asia, the region's major powers - China, Japan and the United States - have maintained harmonious and cooperative relationships. Moreover, excluding only minor incidents in the Spratly Islands, none of East Asia's major powers has used significant force against another Asian country since China's limited war against Vietnam in 1979. For 40 years, the members of ASEAN have largely forsworn the use of force against one another; difficult issues like Taiwan, North Korea and the Spratlys have been effectively managed, and the deep problems of Indochina have been addressed. Minor clashes remain possible in trouble spots such as the Thailand-Myanmar border, and on Asia's western margin there remains a real risk of major, even nuclear, war between India and Pakistan. But even the risk of an India-Pakistan war does not seem to threaten an outbreak of major war in East Asia.
展开▼
