Simulation of natural capital and ecosystem services in a watershed in Northern Japan focusing on the future underuse of nature: by linking forest landscape model and social scenarios

Haga Chihiro; Inoue Takahiro; Hotta Wataru; Shibata Rei; Hashimoto Shizuka; Kurokawa Hiroko; Machimura Takashi; Matsui Takanori; Morimoto Junko; Shibata Hideaki

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Simulation of natural capital and ecosystem services in a watershed in Northern Japan focusing on the future underuse of nature: by linking forest landscape model and social scenarios

机译：通过将森林景观模型与社会情景联系起来，对日本北部流域的自然资本和生态系统服务进行仿真，关注未来自然的未充分利用

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A quantitative scenario approach to compare the future state of natural capital and ecosystem services (ESs) plays a key role in facilitating decision-making for the sustainable management of landscapes. In Japan, the shrinking and aging population will likely lead to a situation of underuse of natural resources, resulting in rewilding of terrestrial ecosystems. This study conducted a quantitative scenario analysis of natural capital and ESs by linking model and social scenarios on a local scale. The case study area was the Bekanbeushi River Watershed in Northern Japan. LANDIS-II model (a forest landscape model) was used to simulate the vegetation dynamics in species composition, age structure, and biomass considering impacts of forest and pasture land management. Four population distribution and capital preference scenarios were translated into forest and pasture land management. The population distribution and capital preference assumptions resulted in different consequences for natural capital and ESs. The population distribution affected the spatial allocation of abandoned pasture land and level of isolation of managed pasture land. The capital preference assumptions largely affected the consequences for ESs. Finally, these simulation results demonstrated the capacity to feed quantitative information to the narrative scenarios. Our process-based approach provides insight into the relationships among social drivers, ecological processes, and the consequences that will affect natural capital and ESs, which can contribute to decision-making and sustainability design of regions, which may face issues associated with underuse in the future.

机译：比较自然资本和生态系统服务（ESs）未来状态的定量方案方法在促进决策的可持续性景观管理中发挥着关键作用。在日本，人口的减少和老龄化很可能导致自然资源使用不足的状况，导致陆地生态系统重生。这项研究通过在本地范围内将模型和社会情景联系起来，对自然资本和ES进行了定量情景分析。案例研究区域是日本北部的Bekanbeushi河流域。考虑森林和牧场管理的影响，使用LANDIS-II模型（森林景观模型）模拟物种组成，年龄结构和生物量中的植被动态。将四种人口分布和资本偏好方案转换为森林和牧场土地管理。人口分布和资本偏好假设对自然资本和社会经济有不同的影响。人口分布影响了废弃牧场的空间分配和受管理牧场的隔离程度。资本偏好假设在很大程度上影响了ES的后果。最后，这些模拟结果证明了向叙事场景提供定量信息的能力。我们基于过程的方法可洞悉社会驱动因素，生态过程以及将影响自然资本和生态系统的后果之间的关系，这些后果可能有助于区域的决策和可持续性设计，而这些问题可能会面临与土地利用不足相关的问题。未来。

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《Sustainability science》 |2019年第1期|89-106|共18页
作者
Haga Chihiro; Inoue Takahiro; Hotta Wataru; Shibata Rei; Hashimoto Shizuka; Kurokawa Hiroko; Machimura Takashi; Matsui Takanori; Morimoto Junko; Shibata Hideaki;
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作者单位

Osaka Univ, Grad Sch Engn, Div Sustainable Energy & Environm Engn, Rm 405,M3 Bldg Sustainable Energy & Environm Engn, Suita, Osaka 5650871, Japan;

Hokkaido Univ, Field Sci Ctr Northern Biosphere, Kita Ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 0600809, Japan;

Hokkaido Univ, Sch Agr, Kita Ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 0608589, Japan;

Res Inst Human & Nat, Kita Ku, 457-4 Motoyama, Kyoto 6038047, Japan;

Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Agr & Life Sci, Bunkyo Ku, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Tokyo 1138657, Japan;

Forestry & Forest Prod Res Inst, Dept Forest Vegetat, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058687, Japan;

Osaka Univ, Grad Sch Engn, Div Sustainable Energy & Environm Engn, Rm 405,M3 Bldg Sustainable Energy & Environm Engn, Suita, Osaka 5650871, Japan;

Osaka Univ, Grad Sch Engn, Div Sustainable Energy & Environm Engn, Rm 405,M3 Bldg Sustainable Energy & Environm Engn, Suita, Osaka 5650871, Japan;

Hokkaido Univ, Grad Sch Agr, Kita Ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 0608589, Japan;

Hokkaido Univ, Field Sci Ctr Northern Biosphere, Kita Ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 0600809, Japan;

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关键词
LANDIS-II model; Terrestrial ecosystem; Depopulation; Forestry practice; Farmland abandonment;

机译：LANDIS-II模型;陆地生态系统;人口减少;林业实践;农田弃耕;

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Simulation of natural capital and ecosystem services in a watershed in Northern Japan focusing on the future underuse of nature: by linking forest landscape model and social scenarios

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