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From robustness to resilience: avoiding policy traps in the long term

机译：从健壮到弹性：长期避免政策陷阱

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摘要

The likelihood of being faced with trap-like situations is a worrisome aspect of long-term policy-making, such as for climate change adaptation. Even when a policy may be effective in the short-term, changes in problem or policy contexts may render it ineffective over time. The design of 'robust' policies, meaning those which are able to self-adjust to linear changes in their environment, can be contrasted with 'resilient' ones which are able to adjust not only to linear, but also non-linear shifts in their contexts. Building on Boonstra and de Boer (AMBIO 43:260-274, 2014)'s argument that traps should not be considered as a static phenomenon; rather their emergence and development is often directly influenced by history and path-dependency, this paper elaborates how trap-like situations can emerge with increase in climate uncertainty over time. Three strategies to address policy traps due to climate change form subjects of inquiry in this paper: avoiding traps in the first place, designing against traps, and overcoming traps once in them. Each requires a specific type of design thinking and practice.
机译：面临类似陷阱的情况的可能性是长期决策的令人担忧的方面，例如适应气候变化。即使政策在短期内可能有效，但随着时间的流逝，问题或政策环境的变化也可能使其无效。 “稳健”策略的设计，即那些能够根据环境的线性变化进行自我调整的策略，可以与“弹性”的策略进行对比，后者不仅可以调整其线性变化，而且还可以进行非线性变化上下文。建立在Boonstra和de Boer（AMBIO 43：260-274，2014）的论点上，即不应将陷阱视为静态现象。而是它们的出现和发展通常直接受到历史和路径依赖的影响，本文阐述了随着时间的推移，随着气候不确定性的增加，类似陷阱的情况如何出现。应对气候变化导致的政策陷阱的三种策略构成了本文的研究主题：首先避免陷阱，针对陷阱进行设计以及一旦克服陷阱就可以解决。每个都需要特定类型的设计思维和实践。

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