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Why biodiversity declines as protected areas increase: the effect of the power of governance regimes on sustainable landscapes

机译：为什么生物多样性会随着保护区的增加而减少：治理制度的力量对可持续景观的影响

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Achieving sustainable landscapes that integrate food production with biodiversity conservation remains challenging, particularly in the tropics where most forest clearance results from conversion to industrial agriculture. Land-sparing (delineating protected areas and intensifying agricultural production from developed land) has often been identified as more effective than land-sharing (mixing protection and production in an agro-ecological matrix) for biodiversity in the tropics. Nevertheless, biodiversity decline continues despite protected area expansion meeting global targets under international conventions. We developed a low-order stock-and-flow model to consider this apparent paradox, and used it to structure deliberations on the impacts of the power of governance regimes. The model articulates our shared hypothesis about the basic dynamics of the social-ecological system. We present scenarios that depict plausible biodiversity change over time under three different governance regimes and land-use trajectories. The scenarios raise the possibility that, while land-sparing gives better short-term results for biodiversity, land-sharing may outperform it over time. Two key insights derive from our deliberations. First, the forces that drive forest clearance for development do not necessarily oppose those that drive forest protection; this decoupling helps explain why biodiversity loss continues as protected areas increase. Second, the power of the governance regimes that protect existing forest can be weakened by protected area expansion, through lowering public discourse about risks from biodiversity loss, while the power of governance regimes for development concurrently remain strong; this helps explains why some REDD+ schemes are associated with increasing deforestation. These insights suggest novel leverage points for sustainable tropical landscapes, such as prioritising protected area placement by proximity to active agricultural frontiers, rather than by representative biodiversity or cost-effectiveness; or using area-based conservation targets that include both the extent of protected areas and of other remaining forest habitat. We recommend further investigation of these ideas, and of collaborative conceptual modelling approaches, to explore solutions for sustainable tropical landscapes.
机译：要实现将粮食生产与生物多样性保护相结合的可持续景观仍然具有挑战性，特别是在热带地区，那里大多数森林砍伐是由于向工业农业的转化。人们通常认为，对于热带地区的生物多样性而言，节约土地（划定保护区并从发达土地加强农业生产）比土地共享（在农业生态矩阵中进行混合保护和生产）更为有效。然而，尽管保护区扩大达到了国际公约规定的全球目标，生物多样性仍在继续下降。我们开发了一个低阶的存量和流量模型来考虑这种明显的悖论，并用它来构建对治理制度权力影响的审议。该模型阐明了我们关于社会生态系统基本动力的共同假设。我们提出的情景描述了在三种不同的治理制度和土地使用轨迹下，生物多样性可能随时间变化的情况。这些情景增加了以下可能性：尽管保留土地可以为生物多样性带来更好的短期结果，但随着时间的流逝，土地共享的表现可能会超过其表现。我们的审议有两个关键的见解。首先，推动森林砍伐以促进发展的力量不一定与推动森林保护的力量相反。这种脱钩有助于解释为什么生物多样性的丧失会随着保护区的增加而持续下去。第二，可以通过减少公众对生物多样性丧失风险的讨论，通过扩大保护区来削弱保护现有森林的治理制度的权力，而同时发展治理制度的权力仍然强大。这有助于解释为什么某些REDD +方案与森林砍伐加剧有关。这些见解提出了可持续热带景观的新颖杠杆点，例如通过靠近活跃的农业边界而不是通过具有代表性的生物多样性或成本效益来优先确定保护区的位置；或使用基于区域的保护目标，包括保护区的范围和其他剩余森林栖息地。我们建议对这些想法以及概念性协作建模方法进行进一步调查，以探索可持续热带景观的解决方案。

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