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首页> 外文期刊>Systems Engineering >Application of the Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM) for Systemic Risk Assessment and Management of Interdependent Infrastructures
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Application of the Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM) for Systemic Risk Assessment and Management of Interdependent Infrastructures

机译：不可操作性投入产出模型（IIM）在相互依赖的基础架构的系统风险评估和管理中的应用

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摘要

Our modern era is characterized by a large-scale web of interconnected and interdependent economic and infrastructure systems, coupled with threats of terrorism. This paper demonstrates the value of introducing interdependency analysis into various phases of risk assessment and management through application of the Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM). The IIM estimates the cascading inoperability and economic losses that result from interdependences within large-scale economic and infrastructure systems. Based on real data and the Nobel Prize-winning W. Leontief economic model, the IIM is a computationally efficient, inexpensive, holistic method for estimating economic impacts. Three illustrative case studies are presented. The first and second illustrate how the supply- and demand-side IIM is used to calculate higher-order effects from attacks to vulnerabilities and implementation of risk management policies in large-scale economic systems. The final case study illustrates a more general use for interdependency analysis: to evaluate risk management options against multiple objectives. This study calculates a Pareto-optimal or efficient frontier of solutions by integrating a simplified model of the costs of recovery to the Power sector derived from open-source data with the IIM. Through these case studies, which use a database from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, we illustrate the value of interdependency analysis in the risk assessment and management process as an integral part of systems engineering.
机译：我们现代时代的特征是相互联系，相互依存的经济和基础设施系统的大规模网络，再加上恐怖主义威胁。本文演示了通过应用不可操作性投入产出模型（IIM）将相互依赖性分析引入风险评估和管理的各个阶段的价值。 IIM估计了大规模经济和基础设施系统内相互依赖导致的级联不可操作性和经济损失。基于真实数据和诺贝尔奖得主W. Leontief的经济模型，IIM是一种计算效率高，成本低廉的整体方法，用于估算经济影响。提出了三个说明性的案例研究。第一部分和第二部分说明了如何使用供应方和需求方IIM来计算从攻击到脆弱性以及在大型经济系统中实施风险管理策略的更高阶影响。最后的案例研究说明了相互依赖性分析的更一般用途：针对多个目标评估风险管理选项。这项研究通过将简化的从开放源数据得出的电力部门的恢复成本模型与IIM集成在一起，计算出了帕累托最优或有效解的边界。通过这些案例研究，使用经济分析局的数据库，我们说明了相互依赖分析在风险评估和管理过程中的价值，并将其作为系统工程的组成部分。

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