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A Methodology for Modeling VVT Risks and Costs

机译：VVT风险和成本建模方法

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摘要

The cost of large systems' Verification, Validation, and Testing (VVT) is in the neighborhood of 40% of the total life cycle cost. The cost associated with systems' failures is even more dramatic, often exceeding 10% of industrial organizations turnover. There is a great potential benefit in streamlining and optimizing the VVT process. The first step in accomplishing this aim is to define a VVT strategy and then to quantify the cost and risk associated with carrying it out. This paper provides an overview of the methodologies for risk and cost monitoring for VVT and proposes a novel approach for modeling VVT strategies as decision problems. A quantitative VVT process and risk model is proposed. Due to the nondeterministic nature of risk, simulation is used to generate distributions of possible costs, schedules, and risk outcomes. These distributions represent a probabilistic approach and are analyzed in relation to impact events. The model provides means to explore different VVT strategies for optimizing relevant decision parameters. To demonstrate the proposed procedure the paper describes a case study depicting a planned avionics suite upgrade program for a fighter aircraft. Some simplified partial quantitative results are also presented.
机译：大型系统的验证，确认和测试（VVT）成本约为总生命周期成本的40％。与系统故障相关的成本甚至更高，通常超过工业组织营业额的10％。精简和优化VVT流程具有巨大的潜在利益。实现此目标的第一步是定义VVT策略，然后量化与实施VVT相关的成本和风险。本文概述了VVT的风险和成本监控方法，并提出了一种将VVT策略建模为决策问题的新颖方法。提出了定量的VVT过程和风险模型。由于风险的不确定性，因此使用模拟来生成可能的成本，进度表和风险结果的分布。这些分布代表一种概率方法，并针对影响事件进行了分析。该模型提供了探索不同VVT策略以优化相关决策参数的方法。为了演示拟议的程序，本文描述了一个案例研究，该案例描述了计划中的战斗机航空电子套件升级程序。还提供了一些简化的部分定量结果。

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