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首页> 外文期刊>Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems, IEEE Transactions on >An ACP Approach to Public Health Emergency Management: Using a Campus Outbreak of H1N1 Influenza as a Case Study
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An ACP Approach to Public Health Emergency Management: Using a Campus Outbreak of H1N1 Influenza as a Case Study

机译：ACP的公共卫生应急管理方法：以H1N1流感校园暴发为例

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摘要

In order to tackle the infeasibility of building mathematical models and conducting physical experiments for public health emergencies in the real world, we apply the Artificial societies, Computational experiments, and Parallel execution (ACP) approach to public health emergency management. We use the largest collective outbreak of H1N1 influenza at a Chinese university in 2009 as a case study. We build an artificial society to simulate the outbreak at the university. In computational experiments, aiming to obtain comparable results with the real data, we apply the same intervention strategy as that was used during the real outbreak. Then, we compare experiment results with real data to verify our models, including spatial models, population distribution, weighted social networks, contact patterns, students' behaviors, and models of H1N1 influenza disease, in the artificial society. In the phase of parallel execution, alternative intervention strategies are proposed to control the outbreak of H1N1 influenza more effectively. Our models and their application to intervention strategy improvement show that the ACP approach is useful for public health emergency management.
机译：为了解决在现实世界中为公共卫生突发事件建立数学模型和进行物理实验的不可行性，我们将人工社会，计算实验和并行执行（ACP）方法应用于公共卫生应急管理。我们以2009年一所中国大学中最大的H1N1流感集体爆发为例。我们建立了一个人工社会来模拟大学的疫情。在计算实验中，为了获得与实际数据可比的结果，我们采用了与实际爆发期间相同的干预策略。然后，我们将实验结果与真实数据进行比较，以验证我们在人工社会中的模型，包括空间模型，人口分布，加权社会网络，联系方式，学生的行为以及H1N1流感疾病模型。在并行执行阶段，提出了其他干预策略来更有效地控制H1N1流感的爆发。我们的模型及其在干预策略改进中的应用表明，ACP方法对于公共卫生突发事件管理非常有用。

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