What makes long-term investment decisions forward looking: A framework applied to the case of Amsterdam's new sea lock

Pot W. D.; Dewulf A.; Biesbroek G. R.; van der Vlist M. J.; Termeer C. J. A. M.

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What makes long-term investment decisions forward looking: A framework applied to the case of Amsterdam's new sea lock

机译：是什么使长期投资决策具有前瞻性：适用于阿姆斯特丹新海闸案例的框架

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Long-term investments challenge decision makers to look into the far future. Existing future studies often build upon a rational idea of decision making that does not help to explain why decision makers anticipate the future. In addition, existing studies do not provide a clear definition of what is considered as "forward looking". This article proposes a framework that can be used to evaluate and explain for what reasons and based on what criteria decision makers take forward-looking investment decisions. We apply this framework to a specific decision-making case about a Dutch sea lock, making use of interviews (n = 16) and a content analysis of primary documents (n = 430). We find that not all investment decisions are necessarily forward looking. Secondly, we conclude from our case that decisions became forward looking because administrators used scenarios, visions, and flexible solutions to build support, avoid political risks and comply to formal rules. Scenario developers and urban planners could therefore involve administrators in early stages of the decision-making process to increase their awareness of the future towards which they are steering and provide them with alternative future paths. Furthermore, they could identify and use relevant institutional rules with forward-looking features to stimulate forward-looking decisions.

机译：长期投资向决策者挑战未来。现有的未来研究通常建立在理性的决策构想之上，这无助于解释决策者为何预期未来。另外，现有的研究没有对所谓的“前瞻性”提供清晰的定义。本文提出了一个框架，该框架可用于评估和解释什么原因以及基于什么标准的决策者做出前瞻性投资决策。我们利用访谈（n = 16）和主要文档的内容分析（n = 430）将这个框架应用于有关荷兰海闸的特定决策案例。我们发现并非所有投资决策都具有前瞻性。其次，我们从案例中得出结论，决策变得具有前瞻性，因为管理员使用方案，远景和灵活的解决方案来获得支持，避免政治风险并遵守正式规则。因此，方案开发人员和城市规划人员可以让管理员参与决策过程的早期阶段，以提高他们对未来发展方向的认识，并为他们提供替代的未来道路。此外，他们可以识别和使用具有前瞻性特征的相关机构规则来刺激前瞻性决策。

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来源
《Technological forecasting and social change》 |2018年第7期|174-190|共17页
作者
Pot W. D.; Dewulf A.; Biesbroek G. R.; van der Vlist M. J.; Termeer C. J. A. M.;
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作者单位

Wageningen Univ & Res, Publ Adm & Policy Grp, Hollandseweg 1,POB 47, NL-6706 KN Wageningen, Netherlands;

Wageningen Univ & Res, Publ Adm & Policy Grp, Hollandseweg 1,POB 47, NL-6706 KN Wageningen, Netherlands;

Wageningen Univ & Res, Publ Adm & Policy Grp, Hollandseweg 1,POB 47, NL-6706 KN Wageningen, Netherlands;

Wageningen Univ & Res, Landscape Architecture Grp, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, NL-6708 PB Wageningen, Netherlands;

Wageningen Univ & Res, Publ Adm & Policy Grp, Hollandseweg 1,POB 47, NL-6706 KN Wageningen, Netherlands;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
Forward-looking decisions; Infrastructure investments; Future anticipation; Public sector; Scenario use;

机译：前瞻性决策;基础设施投资;对未来的展望;公共部门;方案的使用;

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What makes long-term investment decisions forward looking: A framework applied to the case of Amsterdam's new sea lock

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