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Towards 5G: Scenario-based assessment of the future supply and demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure

机译：迈向5G：基于场景的移动电信基础设施未来供需评估

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摘要

Moving from 4G LTE to 5G is an archetypal example of technological change. Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) who fail to adapt will likely lose market share. Hitherto, qualitative frameworks have been put forward to aid with business model adaptation for MNOs facing on the one hand increasing traffic growth, while on the other declining revenues. In this analysis, we provide a complementary scenario-based assessment of 5G infrastructure strategies in relation to mobile traffic growth. Developing and applying an open-source modelling framework, we quantify the uncertainty associated with future demand and supply for a hypothetical MNO, using Britain as a case study example. We find that over 90% of baseline data growth between 2016 and 2030 is driven by technological change, rather than demographics. To meet this demand, spectrum strategies require the least amount of capital expenditure and can meet baseline growth until approximately 2025, after which new spectrum bands will be required. Alternatively, small cell deployments provide significant capacity but at considerable cost, and hence are likely only in the densest locations, unless MNOs can boost revenues by capturing value from the Internet of Things (IoT), Smart Cities or other technological developments dependent on digital connectivity.
机译：从4G LTE过渡到5G是技术变革的典型范例。无法适应的移动网络运营商（MNO）可能会失去市场份额。迄今为止，已经提出了定性框架，以帮助移动网络运营商适应业务模型，一方面面临流量增长，另一方面收入下降。在此分析中，我们提供了基于情景的补充评估，以评估与移动流量增长相关的5G基础架构策略。开发和应用开源建模框架，我们以英国为例，对与假设的MNO的未来需求和供应相关的不确定性进行量化。我们发现，2016年至2030年期间90％以上的基准数据增长是由技术变革而非人口统计学驱动的。为了满足这一需求，频谱策略需要的资本支出最少，并且可以满足基线增长，直到大约2025年，此后将需要新的频谱带。或者，小蜂窝部署可提供巨大的容量，但成本却很高，因此可能仅在最密集的位置部署，除非MNO可以通过从物联网（IoT），智能城市或其他依赖数字连接的技术发展中获取价值来增加收入。

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