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Policy experts' propensity to change their opinion along Delphi rounds

机译：政策专家倾向于在德尔福回合中改变他们的看法

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A key to successful Delphi process is to have some panellists to change their opinion as a result of considering the views of their peers. Despite this, studying the changes in opinions has not been in the research focus outside methodological approaches in the field of forecasting. In addition to forecasting, Delphi technique is also used widely in the fields of public policy and strategic decision-making in companies. We assessed opinion shift between Delphi rounds that were set up to evaluate reforms of specific agriculture and forestry policy measures. Theoretical postulates and findings from previous studies concerning consensus and extreme responses were assessed,in this real-world Delphi process. The feedback in the process included both numeric and argumentative information from the previous round outcomes. We found that change in opinion was stimulated by the majority's stand whilst providing extreme responses to the arguments that were fed back meant perseverance of opinions. Additionally, interest groups showed differing response behaviour concerning the evaluated agriculture policy measures. In particular, panellists, who represented interest groups, were more persistent in their opinions compared to panellists representing other groups of expertise (e.g. administration, non-governmental organisations or research). Unlike interest groups, other groups or fields of expertise, age, gender or education did not offer elucidation over opinion change. Our results show not only the connection between changing opinions and the feedback information, but also that panellists can be analysed based on their propensity to change their opinion. This feature can be beneficial not only for policy- and decision-making but also, for example, for conflict assessments and for cases where further understanding of the group dynamics is desired. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译：成功进行Delphi流程的关键是要考虑到同行的意见，让一些小组成员改变看法。尽管如此，在预测领域的方法论方法之外的研究重点还不是研究观点的变化。除了预测之外，Delphi技术还广泛用于公司的公共政策和战略决策领域。我们评估了为评估特定农业和林业政策措施的改革而进行的德尔菲回合之间的观点转变。在这个真实的Delphi过程中，对先前关于共识和极端反应的研究的理论假设和发现进行了评估。该过程中的反馈包括来自上一轮结果的数字和论据信息。我们发现，多数派的立场刺激了观点的改变，同时对反馈的观点提供了极端的回应，这意味着观点的坚持不懈。此外，利益集团对评估的农业政策措施表现出不同的反应行为。特别是，代表利益集团的小组成员与代表其他专业小组（例如政府，非政府组织或研究机构）的小组成员相比，其观点更加坚定。与利益团体不同，其他团体或专业领域，年龄，性别或教育程度并未阐明观点的变化。我们的结果不仅显示了意见变更与反馈信息之间的联系，而且可以根据小组成员改变意见的倾向来对其进行分析。此功能不仅有益于政策和决策制定，而且还有益于例如冲突评估以及需要进一步了解团队动态的情况。 （C）2016 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。

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