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首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >Stranded on a low-carbon planet: Implications of climate policy for the phase-out of coal-based power plants
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Stranded on a low-carbon planet: Implications of climate policy for the phase-out of coal-based power plants

机译：陷入低碳星球：气候政策对逐步淘汰燃煤电厂的影响

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Limiting global warming to 2 degrees C will likely entail the complete phase-out of coal-based electricity generation without carbon capture and storage (CCS). The timing and rate of this phase-out will depend on the stringency of near-term climate policy and will have important implications for the stranding of coal power plant capacity without CCS. The objectives of this paper are to better understand the relationship between near-term climate policy and stranded coal capacity (assuming a long-term goal of limiting warming to 2 degrees C) and to explore strategies for reducing stranded capacity. Our analysis suggests that strengthening near-term climate policy (i.e., lowering the global greenhouse gas emission target in 2030) generally reduces stranded coal capacity and its costs. An effective strategy for reducing stranded capacity is to minimize new construction of coal capacity without CCS, which can be accomplished by reducing electricity demand through energy intensity improvements and/or by keeping existing plants operating through lifetime extensions. Another strategy, providing emission exemptions for pre-existing coal plants (i.e., grandfathering), would eliminate stranded capacity, but also decreases the likelihood of achieving the 2 degrees C target. Finally, the ability of CCS retrofits to significantly reduce stranded capacity depends on how quickly the technology can be deployed. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.
机译：将全球变暖限制在2摄氏度，可能会完全淘汰没有碳捕集与封存（CCS）的煤炭发电。逐步淘汰的时间和速率将取决于近期气候政策的严格程度，并将对没有CCS的燃煤电厂产能搁浅产生重要影响。本文的目的是更好地了解近期气候政策与滞留煤炭产能之间的关系（假设将升温限制在2摄氏度的长期目标），并探索降低滞留产能的策略。我们的分析表明，加强近期气候政策（即降低2030年全球温室气体排放目标）通常会减少搁浅的煤炭产能及其成本。减少搁浅容量的有效策略是在不使用CCS的情况下最大程度地减少新的煤炭容量建设，这可以通过提高能源强度和/或通过延长现有电厂的使用寿命来降低电力需求来实现。另一种策略是为既有的燃煤电厂提供排放豁免（即祖父化），这将消除搁浅的产能，但也会降低实现2 C目标的可能性。最后，CCS改造能够显着减少搁浅容量的能力取决于该技术的部署速度。 （C）2014作者。由Elsevier Inc.发布

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