...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >Phases of global demographic transition correlate with phases of the Great Divergence and Great Convergence
【24h】

Phases of global demographic transition correlate with phases of the Great Divergence and Great Convergence

机译：全球人口转变的阶段与大分歧和大融合的阶段相关

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The Great Divergence and, to a lesser extent, the Great Convergence phenomena have attracted considerable scholarly attention. However, the existing attempts at explaining these phenomena and their background share two significant drawbacks: first, no model (to the best of our knowledge) has managed to account for both the Great Divergence and the Great Convergence so as to explain the timing of the trend change (around 1970s). Second, most existing models concentrate heavily on the economic forces, frequently neglecting the demographic factor. We offer an approach to overcome these drawbacks, revealing a close coupling between phases of global demographic transition and phases of the Great Divergence and Great Convergence. As we account for the crucial role of the demographic component in these processes, we show that the timing of the trend change was not coincidental. Our findings suggest that the dynamics of global population growth and the Great Divergence and Great Convergence therefore may be considered so closely coupled as to be two sides of the same coin. On the other hand, they also suggest that the Great Divergence and Great Convergence should be treated as a single process, as two phases of the global modernization. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译：大分歧和大程度融合现象在学术上引起了相当大的关注。但是，现有的解释这些现象及其背景的尝试存在两个重大缺陷：首先，就我们所知，没有一种模型能够同时解释“大分歧”和“大收敛”，从而无法解释这种现象的发生时间。趋势变化（1970年代左右）。其次，大多数现有模型主要集中在经济力量上，经常忽略人口因素。我们提供了一种克服这些缺陷的方法，揭示了全球人口变迁阶段与大分歧与大融合阶段之间的紧密联系。当我们说明人口统计要素在这些过程中的关键作用时，我们表明趋势变化的时机并非偶然。我们的发现表明，全球人口增长的动态以及“大分歧与大融合”因此可以被认为是如此紧密地联系在一起，从而成为同一枚硬币的两个方面。另一方面，他们也建议将大分歧和大融合视为一个过程，作为全球现代化的两个阶段。 （C）2015 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号