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A bibliometric method for measuring the degree of technological innovation

机译：衡量技术创新程度的文献计量方法

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Knowing the degree and stage of a product's innovation is essential for technological forecasting and beneficial for governments and firms that want to come up with product promotion strategies and prioritize investments. Bibliometric analysis has been widely used as a practical tool to evaluate scientific activities. Although there were many bibliometric-based attempts to model product innovation stages, there have not been any trials that approach it from the standpoint of uncertainty reduction in technological product innovation. This paper suggests two hypotheses: 1) at a macro level, the year-to-year difference in relative research volumes of each component decreases over time as the uncertainty of a product decreases; and 2) at a micro level, the year-to-year difference in relative research volumes of each component is correlated with the technological life cycle of a product's core component. In addition, we provide empirical evidence that supports the hypotheses in the case study of mobile phones. From the evidence, we conclude that bibliometric analysis using research papers can measure the uncertainty in a product's technological innovation. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译：知道产品创新的程度和阶段对于技术预测至关重要，对于希望提出产品促销策略并确定投资优先顺序的政府和公司也很有用。文献计量分析已被广泛用作评估科学活动的实用工具。尽管有很多基于文献计量法的尝试来对产品创新阶段进行建模，但是从降低技术产品创新的不确定性的角度来看，还没有任何试验可以对其进行处理。本文提出了两个假设：1）从宏观上看，随着产品不确定性的降低，各成分的相对研究量的逐年差异随着时间的推移而减小； 2）从微观上讲，每个组件的相对研究量的年度差异与产品核心组件的技术生命周期相关。此外，我们提供的经验证据支持手机案例研究中的假设。从证据中我们可以得出结论，使用研究论文进行的文献计量分析可以衡量产品技术创新中的不确定性。 （C）2015 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。

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