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Integrated model for robust emission trading under uncertainties: Cost-effectiveness and environmental safety

机译:不确定性下稳健排放交易的集成模型:成本效益和环境安全

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Emission trading scheme was devised to lower the cost of achieving greenhouse gas emission reductions: emissions are reduced where it is cheapest and emission certificates are then traded to meet the nominal targets for each participant. However, carbon markets, like other commodity markets, are volatile. They react to stochastic "disequilibrium" spot prices, which may be affected by inadequate policies, speculations and bubbles. The market-based emission trading, therefore, does not necessarily minimize abatement costs and achieve emission reduction goals. We introduce a basic stochastic trading model allowing analysis of the robustness of emission reduction policies under irreversibility, asymmetric information and other multiple anthropogenic and natural uncertainties. We illustrate functioning of the robust market with numerical results involving such countries as US, Australia, Canada, Japan, EU27, Russia, Ukraine, China. In particular, we analyze if knowledge about uncertainties may affect portfolios of technological and trade policies and how uncertainty characteristics may influence market prices and change the market structure. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译:制定了排放交易计划以降低实现温室气体减排的成本:在最便宜的地方减少排放,然后交易排放证书以达到每个参与者的名义目标。但是,碳市场与其他商品市场一样,也是波动的。他们对随机的“不平衡”现货价格做出反应,这可能会受到政策,投机和泡沫不足的影响。因此,基于市场的排放交易不一定能将减排成本降至最低并实现减排目标。我们介绍了一种基本的随机交易模型,可以分析在不可逆转,信息不对称以及其他多种人为和自然不确定性下减排政策的稳健性。我们用涉及美国,澳大利亚,加拿大,日本,EU27,俄罗斯,乌克兰,中国等国家的数值结果说明了强劲市场的功能。特别是,我们分析了有关不确定性的知识是否会影响技术和贸易政策的组合,以及不确定性特征如何会影响市场价格并改变市场结构。 (C)2015 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。

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