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A methodology to compute emission projections from road transport (EmiTRANS)

机译：一种计算公路运输排放预测的方法（EmiTRANS）

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摘要

Atmospheric emissions from road transport have increased all around the world during the last decades more rapidly than from other pollution sources. For instance, they contribute to more than 25% of total CO, CO_2, NO_x, and fine particle emissions in most of the European countries. This situation shows the importance of road transport when complying with emission ceilings and air quality standards applied to these pollutants. This paper presents a modelling system to perform atmospheric emission projections (simultaneously both air quality pollutants and greenhouse gases) from road transport including the development of a tailored software tool (EmiTRANS) as a planning tool. The methodology has been developed with two purposes: 1) to obtain outputs used as inputs to the C0PERT4 software to calculate emission projections and 2) to summarize outputs for policy making evaluating the effect of emission abatement measures for a vehicle fleet. This methodology has been applied to the calculation of emission projections in Spain up to 2020 under several scenarios, including a sensitivity analysis useful for a better interpretation and confidence building on the results. This case study demonstrates the EmiTRANS applicability to a country, and points out the need for combining both technical and non-technical measures (such as behavioural changes or demand management) to reduce emissions, indirectly improving air quality and contributing to mitigate climate change.
机译：在过去的几十年中，公路运输产生的大气排放量比其他污染源的排放量增长更快。例如，在大多数欧洲国家中，它们占了CO，CO_2，NO_x和细颗粒物排放总量的25％以上。当遵守排放上限和适用于这些污染物的空气质量标准时，这种情况表明了公路运输的重要性。本文提出了一种建模系统，可以通过道路运输执行大气排放预测（同时包括空气质量污染物和温室气体排放），包括开发定制的软件工具（EmiTRANS）作为规划工具。该方法的开发有两个目的：1）获得用作C0PERT4软件输入的输出以计算排放量预测； 2）总结输出以用于政策制定，以评估车队的减排措施的效果。在几种情况下，已将该方法应用于西班牙到2020年的排放预测计算，包括敏感性分析，有助于更好地解释结果并建立信心。该案例研究证明了EmiTRANS在一个国家的适用性，并指出了将技术和非技术措施（例如行为改变或需求管理）相结合以减少排放，间接改善空气质量和缓解气候变化的必要性。

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  • 来源
    《Technological forecasting and social change》 |2014年第1期|165-176|共12页
  • 作者

    Julio Lumbreras; Rafael Borge; Alberto Guijarro; Jose M. Lopez; M. Encarnacion Rodriguez;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Chemical & Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Madrid, (UPM), c/Jose Gutierrez Abascal 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain;

    Department of Chemical & Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Madrid, (UPM), c/Jose Gutierrez Abascal 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain;

    Department of Chemical & Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Madrid, (UPM), c/Jose Gutierrez Abascal 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain;

    University Institute of Automobile Research (INSIA) Carretera de Valencia, Km.7.28031 Madrid, Spain;

    Department of Chemical & Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Madrid, (UPM), c/Jose Gutierrez Abascal 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Road transport; Emission; EmiTRANS; Policies and measures; Sensitivity analysis; Emission projections;

    机译：公路运输;发射;EmiTRANS;政策和措施;敏感性分析;排放预测;

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