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Forecasting technological change in agriculture-An endogenous implementation in a global land use model

机译：预测农业技术变化-全球土地利用模型的内生实现

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摘要

Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 0.29 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE ("Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment") this approach provides estimates of future yield growth. Highest future yield increases are required in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Our validation with FAO data for the period 1995-2005 indicates that the model behavior is in line with observations. By comparing two scenarios on forest conservation we show that protecting sensitive forest areas in the future is possible but requires substantial investments into technological change.
机译：农业技术变革对于满足未来对农产品的需求起着决定性的作用。但是，到目前为止，由于各种信息和数据的不足，农业部门的模型和土地利用变化的模型已将技术变化作为外来投入。本文提供了一种基于农业土地利用强度度量的内生性实现的首次尝试。我们将此措施与技术变革投资的经验数据相关联。对于研究投资，我们估计的产量弹性为0.29，单位面积的生产成本随着产量水平的提高而线性增加。在全球土地利用模型MAgPIE（“农业生产及其对环境的影响模型”）中实施的这种方法可提供对未来产量增长的估计。撒哈拉以南非洲，中东和南亚需要最高的未来单产增长。我们对粮农组织1995-2005年期间数据的验证表明，该模型的行为与观察结果一致。通过比较两种森林保护方案，我们表明，将来可以保护敏感的森林地区，但需要对技术变革进行大量投资。

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  • 来源
    《Technological forecasting and social change》 |2014年第1期|236-249|共14页
  • 作者

    Jan Philipp Dietrich; Christoph Schmitz; Hermann Lotze-Campen; Alexander Popp; Christoph Mueller;

  • 作者单位

    Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK), Sustainable Solutions (RD3). Telegraphenberg A 51, 14473 Potsdam, Germany,Department of Physics, Humboldt University, Newtonstr, 15, 12489 Berlin, Germany;

    Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK), Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities (RD2), Telegraphenberg A 62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany,Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Humboldt University, Philippstr, 13,10115 Berlin, Germany;

    Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK), Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities (RD2), Telegraphenberg A 62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;

    Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK), Sustainable Solutions (RD3). Telegraphenberg A 51, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;

    Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK), Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities (RD2), Telegraphenberg A 62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Technological change; Land use; Agricultural productivity; Land use intensity; Research and development;

    机译：技术变革;土地利用;农业生产力;土地利用强度;研究与开发;

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