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Agent-based simulation of policy induced diffusion of smart meters

机译：基于代理的策略性智能电表扩散模拟

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How can policy makers influence the path of innovation diffusion effectively and efficiently? We tackle this question in an agent-based model that integrates demand and supply for Smart Meters. Consumers adopt due to awareness and attainment of price thresholds. Suppliers act strategically upon Cournot competition. We add different policies to the simulation and analyze effects on speed and level of Smart Meter adoption. The tested interventions are: Market liberalization, information policies, and monetary grants. From our results we conclude that "One size does not fit all". The best-suited intervention depends on the regulator's objective. Information policies speed-up adoption, but are ineffective in monopolies and if the timing is late. Monetary grants boost speed and level, but policy costs as well. Market structure is critical: Interventions in closed markets primarily favor the monopolist, while intensifying competition raises effectiveness and efficiency. Regulators may combine policies to gain synergies and utilize strategic decision making of suppliers.
机译：决策者如何有效和高效地影响创新传播的路径？我们在基于代理的模型中解决了这个问题，该模型整合了智能电表的需求和供应。消费者采用是由于意识到并达到了价格门槛。供应商在古诺竞争中采取战略行动。我们在仿真中添加了不同的策略，并分析了对智能电表采用速度和级别的影响。经过测试的干预措施包括：市场自由化，信息政策和货币赠款。根据我们的结果，我们得出结论：“一种尺寸无法适应所有尺寸”。最合适的干预措施取决于监管机构的目标。信息政策可加快采用速度，但在垄断中以及时机较晚时无效。货币赠款提高了速度和水平，但政策成本也提高了。市场结构至关重要：封闭市场中的干预主要有利于垄断者，而激烈的竞争则可以提高有效性和效率。监管机构可以合并政策以获得协同效应，并利用供应商的战略决策。

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