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首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations
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Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

机译：面向未来的技术分析：解决颠覆性转型的潜力

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摘要

This paper reflects on the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and in defining effective policy responses leads to the understanding that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil such roles. Dealing with disruptive changes - and grand challenges in particular -, therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general, while further two are specific to the so-called grand challenges: i) distinguish known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns, ii) combine quantitative and qualitative approaches in a relevant and feasible way, iii) understand the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges, and iv) orchestrate joint responses to grand challenges. After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue. These present various methodological aspects of FTA approaches as well as some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners and stakeholders in comprehending transformations and in tackling the so-called grand challenges.
机译：本文反映了面向未来的分析（FTA）的潜力，以解决重大变化并支持决策者和其他利益相关者预测和应对转型。通过批判性地思考本期特刊的精选论文以及在第四届塞维利亚面向未来的技术分析国际会议上进行的讨论，可以做到这一点。考虑到自由贸易协定在更好地了解复杂情况和确定有效的政策对策方面的潜在作用，使人们认识到，需要采取适当的自由贸易协定做法，以使自由贸易协定能够发挥这种作用。因此，应对颠覆性变化，尤其是重大挑战，提出了一些概念，方法和运营问题。其中两个是一般性的，而另外两个则是针对所谓的重大挑​​战的：i）区分已知未知，未知已知和未知未知，ii）以相关且可行的方式结合定量和定性方法，iii）了解复杂以及挑战的系统性，以及iv）共同应对挑战。在简要解释了这些问题之后，本文概述了本期特刊中发表的论文的主要思想。这些内容介绍了FTA方法的各种方法论方面，以及在实践中需要一些进步，以帮助FTA从业者和利益相关者理解转型并应对所谓的巨大挑战。

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  • 来源
    《Technological forecasting and social change》 |2013年第3期|379-385|共7页
  • 作者

    Cristiano Cagnin; Attila Havas; Ozcan Saritas;

  • 作者单位

    EU DC JRC-1PTS, Seville, Spain,Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), SCN Qd 2, Bl. A Ed. Corporate Financial Center, Sl. 1112, 70712-900, Brasitia-DF, Brazil;

    Institute of Economics, Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, H-1112 Budapest, Budaorsi ut 45., Hungary;

    Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, UK,National Research University, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    FTA practices; fundamental change and transformations; grand challenges;

    机译：自由贸易协定的做法;根本性的变化和转变;巨大的挑战;

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