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Envisioning structural transformation — lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation

机译：构想结构转型-来自有关创新未来的远见项目的经验教训

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The paper aims to contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations. Experiences from a foresight project exploring future innovation patterns (www.innovation-futures.org) are discussed. Four specific features were applied in order to underpin the recognition of structural transformation: 1.1Inductive foresight approach with an emphasis on capturing indications for extra-systemic change at a micro level instead of extrapolating seemingly dominant macro-trends. 1.2Visual inspiration, to mobilise tacit knowledge, support a creative spirit and an easy exchange of ideas among people with different disciplinary backgrounds. 1.3Rigorous assessment of coverage of dimensions of change, to foster the explicit consideration of possibly unrecognised/hidden structural changes 1.4Extended openness for diversity, to avoid the exclusive interpretation of weak signals only in the context of the existing structures. The findings of the project indicate interesting changes in the nexus of innovation demand and innovation supply. A wide variety of hybrid value creation models with novel configurations of innovation actors emerged. We explain the approach and findings of the project and discuss in particular the implications for foresight methodology. We argue that all four innovative methodological features contributed in a specific way to opening up new perspectives on the future of innovation and potential structural transformation of innovation processes.
机译：本文旨在为建立系统和结构转型的预见能力做出贡献。讨论了有远见的项目在探索未来创新模式（www.innovation-futures.org）中的经验。应用了四个特定功能以增强对结构转换的认识：1.1归纳性先见之明，着重于在微观层面捕获系统外变化的迹象，而不是推断似乎占主导地位的宏观趋势。 1.2视觉灵感，以动员默契知识，支持具有不同学科背景的人们之间的创造精神和思想交流。 1.3对变化范围的覆盖进行严格评估，以促进对可能未被识别/隐藏的结构变化的明确考虑。1.4对多样性的开放性，避免仅在现有结构的背景下对弱信号进行排他性解释。该项目的发现表明，创新需求和创新供应之间的关系发生了有趣的变化。出现了具有创新参与者创新配置的各种各样的混合价值创造模型。我们解释了该项目的方法和发现，并特别讨论了预见方法的含义。我们认为，所有四个创新方法学特征都以特定的方式为开拓关于创新的未来和创新过程的潜在结构转变的新观点做出了贡献。

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