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Testing a multi-scale scenario approach for smallholder tree plantations in Indonesia and Vietnam

机译：在印度尼西亚和越南为小农林木种植园测试多尺度方案方法

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Smallholder tree plantations are seen as promising routes to alleviating poverty and increasing forest area among the countries in Southeast Asia. However, implementation has been disappointing, which led scientists at the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) to consider a scenario exercise as a way to mitigate the risk of unwanted outcomes. The study had a characteristic that it shares with many other studies: close interaction of larger-scale processes and trends (global markets, national policy) with smaller-scale systems (regional and local policy, farmer livelihoods). The authors therefore felt than an explicitly multi-scale approach was called for. To keep close to the well-known practice, we made a modest extension to a conventional scenario logic approach, and introduced a nested, and multi-scale scenario logic. While modest, we believe that the modification is useful, and the method could be used in other studies, in particular climate adaptation studies. We applied the method during two scenario workshops held to explore the use of smallholder tree plantations in efforts to improve rural livelihoods; each workshop considered two different localities. While the scenario frameworks resulting from the workshops were similar between the localities, we believe that the nested scenario framework served to structure the process and revealed meaningful contextual differences. From these experiences, we discuss and critique the method.
机译：在东南亚国家中，小农户树木种植被视为减轻贫困和增加森林面积的有前途的途径。但是，执行情况令人失望，这导致国际林业研究中心（CIFOR）的科学家考虑了情景演练，以减轻不良后果的风险。该研究具有与其他许多研究相同的特征：较大规模的过程和趋势（全球市场，国家政策）与较小规模的系统（区域和地方政策，农民生计）密切相互作用。因此，作者感到需要一种明确的多尺度方法。为了与众所周知的做法保持一致，我们对常规场景逻辑方法进行了适度扩展，并引入了嵌套的多尺度场景逻辑。虽然适度，但我们认为修改是有用的，并且该方法可以用于其他研究，尤其是气候适应性研究。我们在两次情景研讨会中应用了该方法，以探讨利用小农林场改善农村生计的努力。每个研讨会都考虑了两个不同的地区。尽管研讨会之间产生的场景框架在各地之间是相似的，但我们认为嵌套的场景框架有助于构建流程并揭示有意义的上下文差异。从这些经验中，我们讨论并批评该方法。

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