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Technology substitution and innovation adoption: The cases of imaging and mobile communication markets

机译：技术替代和创新采用：影像和移动通信市场的案例

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摘要

Technology substitution and innovation adoption are considered within the framework of evolutionary economy. The evolution hierarchical concepts of change, order, direction, progress and perfectibility are invoked to describe technological substitutions as processes that point towards the direction the economic system moves into, its rate of change giving the speed of change. Knowledge evolution and its appropriation into technological innovation are key ingredients in enhancing competition among technologies struggling towards capturing the other's market shares. We accordingly mathematically translate these evolutionary views into practice using Lotka-Volterra prey-predator model for competition and single logistic growth for the market evolution of the competing innovation. Using this formulation we studied the technological substitution of analog by digital imaging process and demonstrate how the later has disruptively displaced the former. Considering its vital importance to managing market strategies towards innovation products adoption, we redefine the takeoff time with a more realistic accounting of the innovation product adoption by consumers that is easily computed from its launching phase sales data. Our takeoff time is found to occur earlier than the one usually adopted. The new formulation is successfully tested against the consolidated innovation adoption of two economically impacting technological innovations: digital cameras and mobile phones.
机译：在替代经济中考虑技术替代和创新采用。调用变化，顺序，方向，进步和完美性的演化层次概念来描述技术替代，因为这些替代过程指向经济体系进入的方向，其变化速率给出了变化的速度。知识进化及其在技术创新中的使用是增强努力争夺对方市场份额的技术之间竞争的关键因素。因此，我们使用Lotka-Volterra捕食者-捕食者模型在数学上将这些进化观点转化为实践，用于竞争和单逻辑增长以促进竞争性创新的市场发展。使用此公式，我们研究了数字成像过程对类似物的技术替代，并证明了后者如何破坏性地取代了前者。考虑到其对于管理创新产品采用的市场战略至关重要，我们重新定义起飞时间，对消费者采用创新产品的情况进行更现实的核算，这可以很容易地根据其启动阶段的销售数据进行计算。我们的起飞时间早于通常采用的起飞时间。新配方已成功通过两项经济影响的技术创新的整合创新测试：数码相机和手机。

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