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Forecasting the Technology Revolution: Results and learnings from the TechCast Project

机译：预测技术革命：TechCast项目的结果和经验教训

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摘要

This research report presents latest results on the TechCast Project, first reported in Technology Forecasting & Social Change 14 years ago [1). TechCast is an online Delphi system that pools background trends and the judgment of experts around the world to forecast breakthroughs in all fields. Results are presented for strategic technological advances that are likely to enter the mainstream and their expected impacts, providing an overview of the Technology Revolution. Aggregating the forecast data then provides macro-forecasts of broad timetables for economic and social change. This analysis suggests that the global economy is likely to enter a new economic upcycle about 2015 and reach an advanced stage of development about 2020. We also examine examples of how organizations develop technology strategy to compete in an era of economic transformation, and conclude by analyzing the role of forecasting as one of many methods for reducing uncertainty.
机译：这份研究报告介绍了TechCast项目的最新成果，该成果在14年前的技术预测与社会变革中首次报道[1]。 TechCast是一个在线Delphi系统，汇集了背景趋势和世界各地专家的判断力，以预测所有领域的突破。提出了可能进入主流的战略技术进步及其预期影响的结果，并概述了技术革命。然后，汇总预测数据可提供宏观预测，以预测经济和社会变革的时间表。该分析表明，全球经济很可能在2015年左右进入新的经济周期，并在2020年左右达到发展的高级阶段。我们还研究了组织如何制定技术战略以在经济转型时代竞争的例子，并通过分析得出结论。预测是减少不确定性的众多方法之一。

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