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Long-term GDP forecasts and the prospects for growth

机译：长期GDP预测和增长前景

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The growth of GDP is considered as a natural-growth process amenable to description by the logistic-growth equation. The S-shaped logistic pattern provides good descriptions and forecasts for both nominal and real GDP per capita in the US over the last 80 years. This enables the calculation of a long-term forecast for inflation, which is to enter a declining trend not so far in the future. The two logistics are well advanced, more so for nominal GDP. The assumption for logistic growth works even better for Japan whose nominal GDP per capita has already completed tracing out an entire logistic trajectory. The economic woes of industrialized countries could be attributed to the saturation of growth there, as if a niche in nature had been filled to capacity. In contrast, GDP growth in China and India is in the very early stages of logistic growth still indistinguishable from exponential patterns. The ceiling of these logistics can be anywhere between 5 and 10 times today's levels.
机译：GDP的增长被认为是自然增长过程，可以用对数增长方程来描述。 S形物流模式为过去80年来美国的名义人均GDP和实际人均GDP提供了良好的描述和预测。这样就可以计算出通货膨胀的长期预测，这将在不久的将来进入下降趋势。两种物流都非常先进，名义GDP则更是如此。对于后勤增长的假设，对于日本的人均名义GDP已经完成了整个后勤发展轨迹的追踪，效果更好。工业化国家的经济困境可以归因于那里的增长饱和，就好像自然界中的利基已经被能力所填补。相反，中国和印度的GDP增长处于后勤增长的早期阶段，仍然与指数模式没有区别。这些物流的最高限额可以是当今水平的5至10倍。

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