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首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >Integrating Delphi and participatory backcasting in pursuit of trustworthiness-The case of electric mobility in Germany
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Integrating Delphi and participatory backcasting in pursuit of trustworthiness-The case of electric mobility in Germany

机译：整合Delphi和参与式重铸以追求可信度-以德国的电动汽车为例

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Backcasting is an established approach to assess the creation and realisation of desirable futures, being especially suitable for complex issues where a radical change is required. A variety of methods is used to execute backcasting exercises with broad stakeholder participation. However, due to certain group inefficiencies it is a challenge to execute backcasting exercises in a participatory and yet rigorous and trustworthy way. We present an innovative participatory backcasting approach, integrating a Delphi survey and semi-structured interviews for electric mobility in Germany. As a major contribution, we demonstrate how to increase trustworthiness in participatory backcasting, by allowing for continuous stakeholder participation in a structured and transparent manner: from the creation of a preferable future to the assessment of the major factors leading to this future. The results illustrate a future vision of electric mobility in Germany in the year 2030 and present a discussion of the major factors leading to this desirable future. In addition to presenting the major benefits of our approach by integrating Delphi and participatory backcasting, we also outline the challenges related to this approach, such as difficulties in developing detailed roadmaps or the limited inclusion of end-users as major stakeholders.
机译：回播是一种评估理想期货的创建和实现的既定方法，特别适用于需要进行重大更改的复杂问题。在利益相关者广泛参与的情况下，可以使用多种方法来执行回播练习。但是，由于某些团队效率低下，以参与性但严谨和可信赖的方式执行回播练习是一个挑战。我们提出了一种创新的参与式后退方法，该方法将德尔菲调查和半结构化访谈相结合，用于德国的电动汽车。作为一项重要的贡献，我们展示了如何通过允许利益相关者以结构化和透明的方式持续参与来提高参与式回播的可信赖性：从创建更可喜的未来到评估促成此未来的主要因素。结果说明了2030年德国电动汽车的未来愿景，并对导致这一理想未来的主要因素进行了讨论。除了通过集成Delphi和参与式反向广播来展示我们的方法的主要优点之外，我们还概述了与该方法有关的挑战，例如难以制定详细的路线图或将最终用户限制为主要利益相关者。

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