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A new methodology for anticipating STEEP surprises

机译：预测STEEP意外的新方法

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摘要

In technological forecasting and futures research on social change, the term wild card (a.k.a. disrupter or STEEP surprise), traditionally refers to a plausible future event that is estimated to have low probability but high impact should it occur. This article introduces:1. A Type //Wild Card, defined as having high probability and high impact as seen by experts if present trends continue, but low credibility for non-expert stakeholders of importance.2. A four-level typology of wild cards, leading to a systematic methodology for monitoring the emerging awareness and credibility of high probability disruptors and for assessment of stakeholder-specific views about them.An informal pilot test of the methodology both indicated that the approach has practical value, and highlighted the importance of highly plausible tipping points which could rapidly lead to massive disruption, either toward collapse or reformation in the complex adaptive systems (CAS) making up human civilization.For reasons of historical continuity, wild card-related nomenclature is used throughout the majority of this article although the term STEEP Surprise is advocated for further work. (STEEP being a frequently used acronym denoting five conceptual sectors of importance.) Suggestions for further work include:1. Research on how to diminish the discounting of Type II phenomena by institutional leaders 2. Monitoring of transitions in the perceived credibility of critical Type II STEEP Surprises by thought leaders3. A Snowball Survey of wisdom leaders having multidisciplinary expertise from all walks of life to identify specific Type II possibilities (especially positive ones), they see as having greatest importance4.A Cooperative Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises for sharing of intelligence on highly probable/highly disruptive events, together with plausible impacts and proactive policies.
机译：在有关社会变化的技术预测和未来研究中，通配符（也称为破坏者或STEEP惊喜）一词通常指的是可能发生的未来事件，估计该事件发生的可能性很小，但发生时会产生很高的影响。本文介绍：1。类型//通配符，定义为如果当前趋势持续下去，则专家认为具有很高的可能性和影响力，但是对具有重要意义的非专家利益相关者的信誉较低。2。通配符的四级分类法，导致了一种系统的方法论，以监测高概率破坏者的新出现的意识和可信度以及评估利益相关者对它们的特定看法。对该方法的非正式试点测试均表明，该方法具有实用性价值，并强调了高度合理的引爆点的重要性，这些引爆点可能迅速导致大规模破坏，包括构成人类文明的复杂适应系统（CAS）崩溃或改革。出于历史连续性的原因，使用了与通配符相关的术语在本文的大部分内容中，尽管提倡“ STEEP Surprise”一词是为了进行进一步的工作。 （STEEP是经常使用的首字母缩写，表示五个重要的概念领域。）进一步工作的建议包括：1。关于如何减少机构领导者对II型现象的折衷的研究2.监测思想领袖对II型关键STEEP Surprises的可信度的转变。一项对来自各行各业的具有跨学科专业知识的智慧领袖进行雪球调查，以发现特定的II型可能性（尤其是积极的可能性），他们认为这是最重要的4.STEEP惊喜合作信息交换所，用于分享有关高度可能/高度破坏性事件的情报，以及合理的影响和积极的政策。

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