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Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis

机译：通过Delphi构建场景并进行交叉影响分析

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Since its origins, decision makers have broadly used the Delphi method as a collaborative technique for generating important events and scenarios about what may happen in the future. This is a complex process because of the different interrelations and the potential synergetic effects among the relevant events related to a decision. This fact, along with the uncertainty about the occurrence or non-occurrence of the events, makes the scenario generation task a challenging issue in Delphi processes. In the 196O's, Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) appeared as a methodological tool for dealing with this complexity. CIA can be used for creating a working model out from a set of significant events. CIA has been combined with other methodological approaches in order to increase its functionality and improve its final outcome. In this paper, the authors propose a new step-by-step model for scenario-analysis based on a merger of Turoff s alternative approach to CIA and the technique called Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISMJ. The authors' proposal adds tools for detecting critical events and for producing a graphical representation to the previous scenario-generation methods based on CIA. Moreover, it allows working with large sets of events without using large computational infrastructures. The authors present sufficient information and data so that anyone who wishes to may duplicate the implementation of the process. Additionally they make explicit a set of requirements for carrying out a Delphi process for a group to develop a set of significant events, collectively make the estimations of cross impacts, and to support a continuous planning process within an organization. They use two examples to discuss operational issues and practical implications of the model.
机译：自其起源以来，决策者就广泛地使用Delphi方法作为一种协作技术来生成有关将来可能发生的重要事件和场景。这是一个复杂的过程，因为相关决策之间相关性的不同以及潜在的协同效应。这个事实，加上事件发生或未发生的不确定性，使场景生成任务成为Delphi流程中的一个具有挑战性的问题。在196O年代，交叉影响分析（CIA）成为解决这种复杂性的方法论工具。 CIA可以用于根据一系列重要事件创建工作模型。中央情报局已与其他方法论方法相结合，以增加其功能并改善其最终结果。在本文中，作者基于Turoff的CIA替代方法和称为解释性结构建模（ISMJ）的技术的结合，提出了一种用于情景分析的新的分步模型。作者的提议增加了用于检测关键事件的工具并为以前的基于CIA的场景生成方法生成图形表示，而且它允许处理大量事件而无需使用大型计算基础结构。作者提供了足够的信息和数据，以便任何希望复制实现的人此外，他们为执行小组开发一组重要事件的Delphi流程提出了明确的要求，以共同评估交叉影响并支持组织内的连续计划流程。两个示例讨论了该模型的操作问题和实际含义。

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