...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results
【24h】

Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results

机译：预见性中的可取性偏差：基于Delphi结果的决策质量后果

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

In foresight activities uncertainty is high and decision makers frequently have to rely on human judgment. Human judgment, however, is subject to numerous cognitive biases. In this paper, we study the effects of the desirability bias in foresight. We analyze data from six Delphi studies and observe that participants systematically estimate the probability of occurrence for desirable (undesirable) future projections higher (lower) than the probability for projections with neutral desirability. We also demonstrate that in the course of a multi-round Delphi process, this bias decreases but is not necessarily eliminated. Arguably, the quality of decisions based on Delphi results may be adversely affected if experts share a pronounced and common desirability for a future projection. Researchers and decision makers have to be aware of the existence and potential consequences of such a desirability bias in Delphi studies when interpreting their results and taking decisions. We propose a post-hoc procedure to identify and quantify the extent to which the desirability bias affects Delphi results. The results of this post-hoc procedure complement traditional Delphi results; they provide researchers and decision makers with information on when and to which extent results of Delphi-based foresight may be biased.
机译：在预见活动中，不确定性很高，决策者经常不得不依靠人类的判断。但是，人类的判断会受到多种认知偏见的影响。在本文中，我们研究了可预见性偏差对预见的影响。我们分析了来自六项Delphi研究的数据，并观察到参与者较预期的（不希望的）未来预测发生的概率要高（低于）具有中性需求的预测概率。我们还证明，在多轮Delphi过程中，这种偏差会减少，但并不一定会消除。可以说，如果专家对未来的预测有着明显和共同的期望，那么基于Delphi结果的决策质量可能会受到不利影响。研究人员和决策者在解释其结果并做出决策时，必须意识到Delphi研究中这种期望偏差的存在和潜在后果。我们提出事后程序，以识别和量化期望偏差对Delphi结果的影响程度。此事后程序的结果补充了传统的Delphi结果。他们为研究人员和决策者提供了有关基于Delphi的预见性的时间和程度可能会产生偏差的信息。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号