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A case study of long-term Delphi accuracy

机译：长期Delphi精度的案例研究

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摘要

We evaluated the long-term accuracy of predictions from a Delphic poll of the future of the mental health profession (1). Six hundred participants provided predictions about the likely occurrence and probable time courses for 18 scenarios that could possibly have occurred over the 30-year interval between 1981 to present. Each of the panelists was polled twice with distributional feedback from the first poll provided on the second poll questionnaires. The data from the second polling was used to make predictions regarding the future of various issues that may have affected the mental health profession over the forecast interval. It has now been 30 years since the original poll was conducted; the purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the original group predictions. Results indicated that the Delphi panelists correctly predicted the occurrence of 14/18 scenarios. For those scenarios that did occur, the time course predictions were accurate within approximately 1-5 years.
机译：我们通过对精神卫生专业未来的一次Delphic民意测验评估了预测的长期准确性（1）。六百名参与者提供了关于1981年至今30年间可能发生的18种情况的可能发生的可能性和时间路线的预测。每个小组成员都接受了两次调查，第二次调查问卷提供了第一次调查的分布反馈。第二次民意测验的数据用于对在预测间隔内可能影响精神卫生专业的各种问题的未来做出预测。从最初的民意测验到现在已经30年了；这项研究的目的是评估原始小组预测的准确性。结果表明，德尔福小组成员正确地预测了14/18情景的发生。对于确实发生的那些情况，时程预测在大约1-5年内是准确的。

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