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Cross-country diffusion of photovoltaic systems: Modelling choices and forecasts for national adoption patterns

机译：光伏系统的跨国扩散：为国家采用模式建模选择和预测

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In this paper we propose an innovation diffusion framework based on well-known Bass models to analyze and forecast national adoption patterns of photovoltaic installed capacity. This allows for interesting comparisons among several countries and in many cases highlights the positive effect of incentive policies in stimulating the diffusion of such a technology. In this sense, the Generalized Bass Model proves to be essential for modelling and forecasting. On this basis, we observe important differences in the investments made by countries in the PV sector and we are able to identify whether and when these investments obtained the expected results. In particular, from our analysis it turns out that in some cases incentive measures have been certainly effective in facilitating adoption, while in some others these have not been able to produce real feed-back. Moreover, our cross-country approach is able to forecast different stages in PV evolution: whereas some countries have already entered the mature stage of diffusion, others have just begun. This result may suggest various considerations about the competitive advantage of those countries that invested in alternative energy provisions. In spite of a very diversified scenario in terms of historical patterns of diffusion, we may report, as a general result, the fragile role of innovators for this special market and the dominance of imitative behaviour in adoptions.
机译：在本文中，我们提出了一个基于著名的巴斯模型的创新扩散框架，以分析和预测国家光伏装机容量的采用模式。这允许在几个国家之间进行有趣的比较，并且在许多情况下突出了激励政策在刺激这种技术的普及方面的积极作用。从这个意义上讲，广义低音模型被证明对于建模和预测至关重要。在此基础上，我们观察到各国在光伏行业进行的投资存在重大差异，我们能够确定这些投资是否以及何时获得了预期的结果。特别是，从我们的分析中可以发现，在某些情况下，奖励措施在促进采用方面肯定是有效的，而在另一些情况下，这些措施却无法产生真正的反馈。此外，我们的跨国方法能够预测光伏发展的不同阶段：虽然一些国家已经进入扩散的成熟阶段，但其他国家才刚刚开始。这一结果可能提出了有关那些投资替代能源的国家的竞争优势的各种考虑。尽管就扩散的历史模式而言，情况非常多样化，但总体而言，我们可能会报告创新者在这个特殊市场中的脆弱角色以及在采用过程中模仿行为的主导地位。

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