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Demand-supply coevolution with multiple increasing returns: Policy analysis for unlocking and system transitions

机译：需求－供应协同发展，收益不断增加：解锁和系统转换的策略分析

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Currently, there is much concern about how to make a transition away from environmentally unsustainable activities to sustainable ones, notably in agriculture, energy and transport sectors. The success of such a transition depends on whether one is capable of escaping the lock-in of the dominant, unsustainable technology, which is usually due to multiple lock-in factors. Here, we present a formal model to study the likelihood of market lock-in in the presence of multiple increasing returns. The proposed framework describes coevolving populations of boundedly rational consumers and innovating firms. On the demand side, we focus attention on the interdependence of consumer preferences. We examine the impact of alternative demand side specifications on the direction of innovative activities of firms. On the supply side, a technological trajectory arises from the interplay of incremental innovation, search for a new product design and marketing activities. Our framework provides a general and complete account of increasing returns on supply and demand sides, as well as their synergetic interactions. The model is used to study a number of policy instruments aimed at escaping lock-in.
机译：当前，人们非常关注如何从环境不可持续的活动过渡到可持续的活动，特别是在农业，能源和运输领域。这种过渡是否成功取决于人们是否有能力摆脱主导性，不可持续的技术的锁定，这通常是由于多种锁定因素所致。在这里，我们提出一个正式的模型来研究在多重收益增加的情况下市场锁定的可能性。拟议的框架描述了有限理性的消费者和创新企业的共同进化群体。在需求方面，我们将注意力集中在消费者偏好的相互依赖性上。我们研究了替代需求方规范对企业创新活动方向的影响。在供应方面，渐进式创新，寻求新产品设计和营销活动的相互作用会产生技术轨迹。我们的框架提供了有关供需双方不断增加的收益以及它们之间协同作用的一般性和完整性说明。该模型用于研究许多旨在逃避锁定的政策工具。

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