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On phase transitions, catastrophes, and sudden changes

机译：在相变，灾难和突然变化时

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The eminent Harvard University's historian Niall Ferguson has recently presented us with a very insightful piece with the suggestive title "Complexity and Collapse - Empires on the Edge of Chaos" @@[ 1 ]. His thesis: "What if history is not cyclical and slow moving but arrhythmic-at times almost stationary, but also capable of accelerating suddenly, like a sports car? What if collapse (of Empires) does not arrive over a number of centuries but comes suddenly, like a thief in the night?", using his own words. His motivation: an alert cry to US political leaders, who usually think of current economic challenges facing the United States as being just long-term threats and also in some measure a translation of the worldwide perplexity after the fact of how defaults on subprime mortgages, which first produced a surge in the United States, tipped the entire world economy into a financial blackout, which, for a moment, threatened to bring about a complete collapse of international trade.
机译：著名的哈佛大学历史学家尼尔·弗格森（Niall Ferguson）最近为我们展示了一篇很有见地的文章，标题为“复杂性与崩溃-混沌边缘的帝国” @@ [1]。他的论点是：“如果历史不是周期性的，缓慢的运动，而是心律失常（有时几乎是静止的），但又能够像跑车一样突然加速？如果（帝国）的崩溃在几个世纪内没有到来，该怎么办呢？突然间，像夜里的小偷吗？”，用自己的话说。他的动机是：向美国政治领导人发出警报，他们通常认为美国当前面临的经济挑战只是长期威胁，而且在某种程度上也反映了次级抵押贷款违约后世界范围内的困惑，它首先在美国激增，使整个世界经济陷入金融停滞，一时有可能导致国际贸易彻底崩溃。

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